and why is that enlighten me... because the "majority" of traders believe in trends right and because of this its self fulfilling.. ok.. sure than if the "majority" can see and identify trends then why isnt the "majority" of traders profitable?.... hum anyone can plainly see "price is trending"? so how come 90+% are unprofitable? read the letters and personal book written by dow himself were he talks about bias not trends ... the bias of the session. do some research and come back nice try. you are saying trends are part of pa as well huh? how tape readers trade... they saw in their heads in candlesticks ? and traded in their head? read about tape reading.. tape readers knew bias they knew ranges of price motion. crack is crack it does the same stuff. and your a pa trader because u trade trends? odd i thought you were a price action trader... shouldnt you be trading price action... if you want to trade trends shouldnt you stick to something like momentum trading?
and how many real time charts have you posted... please ur just mad i posted your pm telling me not to push him with college courses when hes in 8th grade... you talk about trading with the trend and yet you probably struggle hitting 50% accuracy in your trades... money management is probably what balances you ... my after the fact charts will help him see the market trade it all you want sir you go to your desk to your computer and you play its rules and the market gives you its rules. i dont work like that im the casino the market comes to me to play i define its rules and by doing so im profitable... and who cares about hershey.... no one brings in perceptions and emotions into the picture here your so mathematical ... so itll never get brought up that some currencies at specific times always trade directionally because of emotions on the time of day. please tell me about trading as you said almost nothing relevant to it except "be like everyone else and believe like everyone else" but everyone else is unprofitable you think big banks dont go ... hum "if i was a retail trader what trade would i be in and where are my stops?" good job lets herd the majority a bit more.
the point is IF look at charts put just a 20 ema on it and just watch formation and "trend" develop .. think.. and see ... observe do not interpret and say well this is what its doing and thus so this is what its gonna do just say... this is what its doing...
simplicity is best in trading yes it is very simple.... very old system? i guess just cause its old makes it not work? and im not even sure its old. it involves no trend ... it involves bias and probabilities...thus its not swing trading... i have a indicator that i wrote based on this that i do do swing trades with tho every now and then i even have one that plots the next 3 bars and give the statistical accuracy of those bars. prob is key for any trader.. to not admit that is crazy. im not hiding any rules ive described beginning steps and have been pmed by a bunch of people and have freely given them everything. 1/2 of them if that will go out and be profitable with it the other half or more will not .... because they dont understand the mechanics or the way i do it ... they dont see the same things... mean entry? i guess if you wanna call it that... i call it a well calculated entry. this is pa if you want to spend time using cw or whatever you mean by that go for it i dont ready every thread here. i may be like a jack hershey i dont really know who that is but ill read up on him if hes like me. yes its very precise i can give what you cant and thats statistical numerical probabilities for every setup i trade before i trade it. do you say ok this is the start of a new trend im going to enter here what will my probability of success be? you know its high then 50 maybe or you know your backtested prob of success but thats not the same thing. you can come to me and teach me when you can say im going to enter this trend here with my clearly defined rules and based on these for this trade ive calculated a probability of success of --% with my tp and sl worked in...
I'm glad you have achieved this level of your trading nukethewhales31. I know with X probability I can achieve Y amount of profit on any given day using the methods which I expounded on ... but how does any of this help Iron Fist is the question? Ultimately he will have to decide on a trading technique and use it. *** I am sure more than one good trader has choosen to ignore this thread Iron Fist, you might want to start getting a clue.
I agree I am just filling in time waiting for a flight but IF you need to start taking yourself seriously because nobody else will do it for you. Stop posting silly charts inviting silly comments and begin by thinking through this puzzle very carefully. That is what trading is about ... thinking your way through a constantly repeating, constantly changing puzzle. regards f9
IF- since you are trying to nail down your strategy may i throw a couple of ideas into the mix which i hope aren't too far off topic?Apologies if i am repeating stuff already mentioned as i have not read the entire thread. It seems to me that any strategy you design must be in harmony with recent market conditions and with consideration to the bigger picture and i dont see you taking any of that into consideration (correct me if i am wrong) For example sp500 has this week failed to close above the 920 area after 3 attempts.We are in a bear market so resistance levels are stronger,support weaker.The low for the year is in unless we crash 140 points in a week which could happen but not likely. I would put all the above in terms of 'the smart money' and be attempting to always stay on the same side of the market as them.To me it seems the sm bought at at 741 nov 21 after a rapid and steep decline from 1000 level. Look at the high vol bar on the daily and where the bar closed tells you serious buying at that level which resulted in a V shape reversal. Only big money has the power to reverse trends and comparing vol (effort) with result (bar/candle) is the clue to the sm 'footprint' and this should work on most timeframes.You are attempting to spot signs of strength at bottoms/signs of weakness at tops. Since daytrading means we are dealing with much smaller timeframes we are by definition mostly dealiing with 'noise' and thereby placing smaller stops which are easy to hit more often hence the unacceptable (to me)number of losing trades. I prefer to trade the smaller timeframes within the context of holding a larger swing position which is in profit which is a more relaxed way of trading rather than wiping the slate clean with each new trade-but that's me. Since you're attempting to draw trend lines and placing entries/exits on those lines may i suggest you investigate squaring price and time for a more accurate picture which others may not be seeing? In any event, to be a winner in this game to me means you absolutely must think outside the box even if you end up using something that is so simple most people reject it. Lastly, on any given trading day you need to determine what kind of day it's likely to be and within the context of the bigger timeframe before deciding whether you are a buyer or seller today.Suggest you also keep and study 5min intraday charts and take note of the key reversal time zones. For example if you have determined we are in an all day down trend it seems pointless to me attempting long entries on the lower trend line. If you do make the above mentioned study you will find that intraday patterns repeat just as all patterns repeat.You will also find they repeat in a cycle (sometimes they reappear 'inverted'-upside down) Pm me if you want further details on this stuff. Sometimes a good clue that you're on to something is when lots of people tell you its crap (in any walk of life)and as we know most people are wrong in this game. good luck
lol ok. how am i not taking myself seriously by posting real time charts where i made bad trades? what would i accomplish by posting after the fact charts of winning trades? well anyway, this thread is for me to learn and for any non-gurus who want to participate.
Mandelset, What I was asking Nuke was how his method works, so don't get all upset. I liked the resistance is an illusion for one reason. It explains the breaks in resitance. It's kind of like it exists but it doesn't. As you know from my other posts, I use S and R and treads and I'm constanting improving my methods, but always using those fundamentals. So, I thought, maybe, Nuke would something to the discussion. Something substantive. That's what I asked for. But I don't see it yet.
Good post. I look at SM, too. Meaning I look at volume. Is it strong as it reaches a peak or nadir? So far, that's what I've done. Can you elaborate on what you've learned about smart money in relation to volume? Thanks.