Yo Ironfist, enjoy your posts and good luck with the journal. In regards to pullbacks. You could enter when you see a sharp move in the direction of the trend rather than buying/selling when price is still pulling back. Thats the beauty of tick or volume charts, you can see momentum much better. Of course the chart below is the pefect entry for this method but that is simply to illustrate the idea. <a href="http://s87.photobucket.com/albums/k142/cipher4d/?action=view¤t=down5.gif" target="_blank"><img src="http://i87.photobucket.com/albums/k142/cipher4d/down5.gif" border="0" alt="Pullback"></a> Also you might want to try adding a higher tick chart to give you a big picture perspective so you know when your trend is running into support or resistance.
Hey Iron, what going on man. Ya Price action is a very broad term...like the word "indicator", or "over-sold/ over-bought". This might piss you off, but I dont think there really is any ONE single way of defining what price action IS, because everyone will have a different view, or at least a different way of trading it. Take a look at one of my earlier highly popular threads ( http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=145597&highlight=cm69 ) . I talk about the need to know, where price is, in its relationship to all time frames. For example in your tick charts you posted, a 20 tick up move might be great if your day trading...but do you think the longer term players give a crap about 20 ticks?...no, in fact that 20 ticks probably didnt even show up on their charts...BUT (example) what did show up on there charts, was that 8420 (the price resistance in your charts) was a major resistance, giving them a short signal. knowing the long term and short term charts, will help greatly. I love trendlines, and on your 1st black chart, i would have been short at 8340 area when price broke to the down side from that first up TL you have..but anyway. After the fact is always easier. When trading, you will never have all the pieces of the puzzle..there is ALWAYS a "what if it's not really a pull back? "... this is why screen time/ back testing/ experience is important, and im still learning too, but if you were using indicators, then you could use them to confirm a down move or up move...such as a MA cross or whatever. understading basic chart patterns, like hammers, morning stars, shooting stars, and all that good stuff will help you read the charts better. Double tops/ bottoms, triangles, wedges...very important, however i know guys that dont use any of this again on pullbacks, it is hard, and so having a wide enough stop is needed. If your so worried about pullbacks, i'd take a look at learning fibonacci..this is what i use as well in FX. as far as exits go, one thing i like about fibonacci's are that it TELLS you the exits, but if you dont use those, then you have to make'em up...so say that your averge stop is 10 to 15 ticks....well an easy way to come up with an exit is to sell when you have at least 20 to 30...that might be small..but thats an easy system to follow....now just fill in the mising pieces of that plan . trendlines --> i've seen some pretty weird looking trendlines where people draw them through the middle of that chart, I personally only use TL's to connect highs or lows, but again, its very subjective so do what makes sense to YOU. Just because someone draws them a different way, doesnt make you wrong.
Without saying anything else, here is a thread that will help quite a bit. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=108364 For an extremely enlightening exercise, throw up a 10 second chart of your favorite instrument and paper trade it. Not a tick chart, not a range chart, just plain 'ol price candle or OHLC bar. Volume if it suits you. PM's with specific inquiries are welcome. Osorico
here is a chart for aud/usd showing fibs, and where price is supported and where the targets are. targets are 6762, and 6947 while support was in the 6345 area. this is a 4hr and i'm over all, bullish. more coming.
Fibs are one of those things like Trendlines. In hindsight you can make them look awesome. But I never know where to begin or end them in order to get the correct retracements. And honestly, the rational part of me wants to say it's voodoo BS... but since they appear to be mentioned in that book by Suri that everyone keeps recommending, I will try to keep an open mind.
aud/usd on the weekly....now not so bullish, and I'd short every one of those levels. i know it says usd/jpy, but im just writting over a file. more coming.
I guarantee the more time you spend behind the screen, you will see those levels (s/r) forming and will likely spot the fib areas without even plotting them. Tomorrow, draw a resistance or support horizontal as you see it forming on the 1, 5 or 15 and leave it up. As the day progresses, watch how your trendline did. How did volume behave as it encountered those areas? Give it time, it will come. Also, check pm.
here on the daily, price is a little more interesting. * from point A to B, we were in a clear down trend, anyone playing this off the daily who felt they missed the move, are waiting for a pullback to take their short positions * Points B to C, the currency rockets up 1000 pips, day traders/ scalpers are having a great time here!..the party ends when aud/usd hits its 38.2 fib resistance level at .7000, as profits are taken, and new shorts are added from longer term players. * .6000 being a nice bottom, and .7000 an established resistance...lets see what happens.