In the past, how long until a 5% correction? (Poll)

Discussion in 'Trading' started by DisciplinedHedg, Apr 23, 2010.

In the past 2 months (42 trading days), the market has been up 31 days. Since 1928,

  1. 0-30 days

    1 vote(s)
    8.3%
  2. 31-60 days

    3 vote(s)
    25.0%
  3. 61-90 days

    4 vote(s)
    33.3%
  4. 91-120 days

    1 vote(s)
    8.3%
  5. 121-150 days

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  6. 151+ days

    3 vote(s)
    25.0%
  1. If you know the answer, keep it to yourself.

    In the past 2 months (42 trading days), the market has been up 31 days. Since 1928, this has happened only 11 times. What was the median number of days it took until a 5% correction?

    (we use median instead of average to minimize the effect of outliers)
     
  2. A correction from now, or from the start of 31 days because the option 0-30 days make no sense then...
     
  3. A correction from now, after being up 31 days in the last 2 months.
     
  4. Bump to get more poll results.
     
  5. I understand the question, but don't see the point. A 5% correction in a sideways market, in a down market, in an uptrending market, during a depression, during low volatility, during high volatility, etc have completely different meanings.

    The market plummeted heavily from fall 08 on, then snapped back. It does not usually fall as much as it did. As a % of previous move's amplitude would make a lot more sense. But in comparison to what happened the last two years, 5% is almost a blip.
     
  6. financialmarket

    financialmarket Guest

    quote

    "the market can be irrational longer than you are solvent."

    age old trading wisdom



     
  7. It is funny that you are polling something that you know the answer for. Most polls are for what will happen, not what has. Why don't you tell us the answer? so what if we are wrong?
     
  8. There is a related observation I made on some thread a while back.
    That is to say that the duration of downcycles has been exponentially decreasing, while bust cycles have been exponentially increasing.
    They are not symmetrical. I.e. the static statistical properties are not necessarily a good measure. It's not so much a daily measure, but something to think about in the current context.