I see you changed your tune you dangerously ignorant Covid dope. (I am comment on your Covid crap... not your other posts) Where are the hundreds of thousands of deaths you were pushing? If someone were to go through this thread and saw the outright lies and propaganda you posted... wow. Sweden is the model we should have all followed. They are down to 1 death a day or less and they did not wear masks or have shelter in place or the type of lockdown stupidity you were pushing with your lies and propaganda. Now you got... well Sweden did some things too. Yeah they did. They were smart.
You tried to claim Sweden had no mitigation or lockdown. The reality is that this assertion is false. Sweden had numerous lockdown measures in place which helped control the deaths. But cases in Sweden are rising, and the government is planning what further lockdown measures may need to be put in place if the cases rise quickly.
A potentially overlooked factor in Sweden's coronavirus strategy: more than half of households consist of just 1 person https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-housing-crowded-lowered-coronavirus-death-rate-2020-9 Household transmission plays a significant role in the coronavirus' spread. The risk is especially high in crowded homes with more than one person per room, research suggests. Sweden never fully locked down, but the nation's large share of people living alone may have helped slow the virus' spread and lower the country's death rate. Four generations of the Garg family live in a four-story building in Delhi, India. In May, Mukul Garg wrote in a blog post that his 57-year-old uncle had gotten the coronavirus, probably after exposure during a routine grocery run. From there, he told the BBC, 10 other family members caught it too, turning his home into a sick ward overnight. Research shows, unsurprisingly, that household outbreaks like this fuel coronavirus transmission within communities. "The role of households in overall societal transmission is quite significant," Yang Yang, a biostatistician at the University of Florida, told Business Insider. It follows, then, that disparities in household sizes between countries could partially explain their differing outcomes. Take Sweden, where more than half of households consist of just one person. Roughly one-third of Sweden's elderly population lives alone, compared to one-fifth of elderly residents in Greece or Spain. Sweden also has a lower proportion of multigenerational households than most other European countries, and one of the smallest average household sizes in Europe: about 2.2 people per home. Sweden drew attention and condemnation for its decision to keep primary schools, restaurants, bars, and gyms open throughout the pandemic. But its small households may give the virus fewer opportunities to spread there — which can slow transmission. Indeed, experts say these demographic factors likely contributed to the stark decline in Sweden's coronavirus deaths since June. A high attack rate among households Up to 40% of influenza transmission occurs within households, but researchers are still working to quantify the precise link between household size and the coronavirus' spread. A February report from the World Health Organization suggested that up to 85% of China's coronavirus clusters were among families. Christian Althaus, an epidemiologist at the University of Bern in Switzerland, estimated that on average, half of coronavirus transmission may occur within households. Studies have indeed found that the coronavirus' secondary attack rate among households could be as high as 50%. Other research, however, suggests that attack rate could be closer to 20% within households (relative to 6% among the general public). But rates of household spread still depend on how much mingling happens outside the home, Yang said. People need to interact in public for community transmission to occur. "Kids mix in school, probably bring [the virus] home, and then adults bring it to the workplace," he said. Some countries have effectively limited contact between household members to contain their outbreaks, though. In China, for instance, people with coronavirus cases that didn't require hospitalization were treated at quarantine centers to keep them from infecting their families. "In some countries, they were able to do this isolation or quarantine away from home," Yang said. "That certainly contributed a lot to the total control of the transmission." Overcrowding raises the risk of transmission The more often people interact inside a home, the higher the risk of household transmission. The Garg family, for instance, ate meals together and frequently played group games like hopscotch and freeze tag — so their chances of passing the virus to one another were probably high. For that reason, Yang's research indicates that household crowding — a measure of the number of people per room inside a home — could be a stronger driver of coronavirus transmission than the number of people inside a home. Indeed, a Wall Street Journal analysis found in June that US counties with high rates of household crowding accounted for a disproportionate share of coronavirus cases. In India, where the Garg family lives, the average household size is around five people, according to Census data — yet only 5% of Indian homes have five or more rooms. The nation currently has the world's second-largest coronavirus case total. The pattern has been observed on a local level as well: A June analysis found that California neighborhoods with the worst coronavirus outbreaks had three times the rate of crowding in households compared to neighborhoods that were largely spared. In New York City, too, ZIP codes in which rental units had more than one occupant per room recorded higher rates of emergency-room visits for "influenza-like illnesses" in March, according to one analysis. (That description is how many COVID-19 cases were recorded at that time.) Swedish homes aren't as spacious as those in the US: The average home in Sweden contains 1.7 rooms per person compared around 2.4 rooms per person in the US. But Swedish homes are still roomier than those in Brazil, Mexico, and Russia, which rank among the top 10 nations with the largest coronavirus outbreaks. The average home in those countries has roughly one room per person. Notably, one of the populations hit hardest in the Swedish outbreak has been Somali immigrants, many of whom live in crowded, multigenerational households. The other particularly vulnerable group has been nursing-home residents, who also spend their days in close contact under one roof.
Who tried to claim Sweden had no lockdowns? There's actually like 10 more of these. Funny. You really need to take care with your posting, gwb.
Amusing --- they are headlines from articles. Aligned with COVID deniers claiming continually that "look at Sweden they have no lockdown".
Not all of them. Many of them have you saying "No-lockdown Sweden". You've been saying it for a while now. Its on other threads as well. That's what makes this so funny, you don't even remember what you are saying to us. Click the third in my list as an example.
Yes.... since the "no-lockdown" advocates always pushed "no-lockdown Sweden". Just using their own language. Time to face the facts - Sweden had 10X the death rate per capita as it neighbors and tanked its economy just as bad as its direct neighbors. Sweden really did a two-fer in a self-inflicted disaster. If you want an example properly applied public health policy with a quick economic recovery then take a look at New Zealand.
I don't care about your example of properly applied public health policy, but I do note your attempt to deter the conversation from how you called Sweden "no-lockdown" and how you based Jem for it. That's funny. And yet another example of how you can't just go "yeah, I was wrong."
Cases could rise as people go back to school, stay indoors and get less vitamin D. Fortunately for them many in Stockholm now have immunity and natural immunity will control. However they recently let their old folks out... so I expect some will die if they are tired of being locked down. Which get to the next point... I told you a million times that the vast bulk of their deaths happened early before they lockded down old folks homes... similar to what happened in New York, Spain and France. Tegnall told you that those deaths seem to have nothing to do with not locking down the low risk. Which brings up the last point... I must have told you 40 times on this thread they locked down the old folks homes... so you are full of shit acting like I denied that they had some measure of lock down. Even if you find some post where I said no lockdown... I said dozens of times their deaths happened before they old folks lock down.
Let's look at reality in Sweden... the country and cities are nowhere near the level required for herd immunity. Other factors helped Sweden over the summer but with rising case counts things are about to get worse. Facts are bolded below which fully refute your nonsense above. Sweden's coronavirus deaths have dropped dramatically, but that doesn't mean its herd-immunity strategy worked, experts say https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-decline-coronavirus-deaths-cases-2020-9 Sweden's rate of coronavirus deaths per capita was among the highest in the world in May. Many experts attributed this to the country's decision to avoid a full lockdown and either deliberately or inadvertently pursue herd immunity. Sweden's deaths and ICU admissions have declined considerably since June, likely due to protections for nursing-home residents and more social distancing over the summer months. But cases could still climb again as schools reopen, nursing homes allow visitors, and people return home to cities after summer vacation. Sweden seems to have staged a remarkable turnaround. After imposing few lockdown rules relative to the rest of the world this spring, the nation's death count per capita soared to among the highest in the world in May. But over the last week, Sweden saw an average of just three daily deaths compared to a peak of 115 in April. Its death toll per capita — now around 58 deaths per every 100,000 people — has fallen behind that of 13 other countries, including the US and UK. The country's daily ICU admissions have also hovered in the single digits since the beginning of July. Experts attribute the decline in deaths to four main factors. One is Sweden's five-month ban on large gatherings, which likely helped slow transmission over time. Second is the country's official guidance asking people to social distance and work from home. Third is the country's summer vacation period, which led people to leave cities. And fourth is the nation's renewed focus on improving safety in nursing homes. But Sweden's recent success doesn't mean its strategy worked overall. "They basically reached this plateau now, whereas others reached it a few months ago," Christian Althaus, an epidemiologist at the University of Bern in Switzerland, told Business Insider. "Because they're lifting measures now, case numbers will probably go up." Sweden lifted its ban on nursing-home visits last week. Children ages 17 and older went back to school in August. Starting October 1, Sweden is also expected to start allowing gatherings of up to 500 people at public events as long as physical distancing is observed. Combined, experts say, those factors could increase the risk of new transmission, leading to a second wave. What worked in Sweden Residents of elderly care homes account for nearly half of Sweden's coronavirus deaths, so curbing transmission in those facilities in particular seems to have caused deaths to fall significantly. Sweden banned visitors at nursing homes in March. Since then, the facilities have gotten stricter about requiring social distancing and face masks. In recent months, the Swedish government also began working with care home sto make it easier for staff to report instances in which an elderly patient didn't get proper care or sufficient access to a doctor. In May, Sweden's prime minister pledged 2.2 billion kronor($220 million) in funding for more staff in elderly care homes. By July, nursing-home staff in Stockholm said they were no longer short on personal protective equipment. On top of these initiatives, timing seems to have been on Sweden's side. The country's vacation period lasts longer than that of other countries: from May through September. During that time, many residents abandon cities in favor of lengthy holidays in the countryside, where people are more spread out. That likely people to spend more time outdoors, where transmission is less likely, and naturally decreased the frequency of interactions between people overall. Softer measures for a longer period of time While most countries were asking residents to stay home in March, Sweden's state epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, controversially chose to keep Sweden's primary schools, restaurants, bars, and gyms open. Earlier this month, Tegnell told the Financial Times that national lockdowns were like "using a hammer to kill a fly." But he added that contrary to popular belief, Sweden's goal was never to allow the virus to run rampant until the majority of the population was exposed. Instead, Tegnell said, leaders relied on residents to exercise personal responsibility. All but 2% of Swedish residents who responded to a government poll in April said they'd changed their behavior to protect themselves from COVID-19. In May, 87% of respondents reported that they were keeping a greater distance from others in shops, restaurants, and on public transport. Sweden did impose some restrictions, though: It closed high schools and universities for three months, urged people to work from home, required social distancing in bars and restaurants, and told the sick and elderly to stay home. Gatherings of more than 50 people were banned in March. "There is often quite a misconception about what has been done and what is being done in Sweden," Althaus said. "Whereas other European countries had maybe more strict measures and lockdowns, but came out of that in April or May, Sweden had softer measures, but kept them in place for a very long time." Even so, the consequences of that lax approach are now clear: From January to June, Sweden recorded more than 51,000 overall deaths — its highest death toll over that six-month period since a famine swept the country 150 years ago. The nation's death toll was around 10% higher this year due to COVID-19 compared to average death toll over the last five years, Reuters reported. "They misjudged quite a bit, obviously, because for a long time they were talking about 'Well this is just a bit like the flu or a bit stronger,'" Althaus said. "But you can also argue that the other European countries overdid it a bit. The right balance is probably in between." Swedish's advantage: small households In viewing Sweden's current low rate of coronavirus deaths, it's tempting to wonder whether other countries should take any queues. But experts say Sweden's small households make it hard to apply recent lessons learned there to other places. "Before claiming 'what country X is doing would have [the] same effect here,' we need to consider whether there are key differences in population structure between countries," Adam Kucharski, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, recentlywrote on Twitter. Importantly, Sweden has al ower proportion of multigenerational households relative to most other European countries. Roughly one-third of Sweden's elderly population lives alone compared to just one-fifth of elderly residents in Greece or Spain. Sweden also has one of the smallest average household sizes in Europe: about 2.2 people per household. By contrast, the US and Russia have an average of 2.6 people per household, while Brazil has 3.3. Studies show that the coronavirus' secondary attack rate is highest among household contacts. A June study found that attack rate was 20% within households, compared to only 6% among the general public. Other studies have found that the attack rate among households could be as high as 50%. Althaus estimated that half of coronavirus transmission may occur within households. "It can be helpful to think of an epidemic as a series of within-household outbreaks, linked by between household transmission," Kucharski wrote. The high proportion of Swedish residents living alone or in small groups therefore likely made it easier to slow transmission — particularly after elderly-care facilities got their outbreaks under control. 'The death toll really came as a surprise' Although Tegnell has changed his tune somewhat since the spring, emails obtained by Swedish journalists showed he initially considered whether Sweden could reach herd immunity— the threshold at which enough of a population becomes immune to the virus to halt transmission. In April, Tegnell told the Financial Times that he expected 40% of people in Stockholm to be immune to the coronavirus by the end of May. That didn't happen: A study from University College London estimated that the level of infection in Stockholm was around 17% in April — the same as in London. Then in June, Tegnell estimated that up to 30% of Sweden's population could be immune, but a national study showed that just 6.1% of people had developed coronavirus antibodies by late May. Althaus said the idea that Sweden would reach herd immunity was "always sort of ridiculous." Scientists widely agree that the safest way to achieve herd immunity is through vaccination, not natural infection. "This idea that, basically 50%, 60%, 70% of people get infected and then the problem is solved, that was never really based on scientific foundation," Althaus said. "It's very unlikely that something like that can be achieved, and even if it could be achieved, it would come — at least in countries with a population demography like European countries or the US — with a huge cost." Tegnell has even admitted that Sweden should have implemented tougher restrictions. "If we were to encounter the same illness with the same knowledge that we have today, I think our response would land somewhere in between what Sweden did and what the rest of the world has done," he told Swedish Radio in June. Tegnell also told "The Daily Show" host Trevor Noah that he underestimated how hard the virus would hit older people. "We calculated on more people being sick, but the death toll really came as a surprise to us," Tegnell said on the show in May, adding, "we really thought our elderly homes would be much better at keeping this disease outside of them."