wouldn't it not be easier to admit Tegnell never said what you claimed he said rather than bring up this extraneous bullshit. right now you are confusing antibody test results and with Tegnell's statements about models and immunity. its no wonder you always get confused by what experts say. you need to think with more precision.
So from a links posted by GWB on another thread about vaccines. So herd immunity would therefore be real. Lets get the low risk people out there to develop herd immunity. https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-05/ljif-dao051420.php "All efforts to predict the best vaccine candidates and fine-tune pandemic control measures hinge on understanding the immune response to the virus," says Crotty, also a professor in the Center for Infectious Disease and Vaccine Research. "People were really worried that COVID-19 doesn't induce immunity, and reports about people getting re-infected reinforced these concerns, but knowing now that the average person makes a solid immune response should largely put those concerns to rest."
Sweden is still nowhere near 'herd immunity,' even though it didn't go into lockdown https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/21/health/sweden-herd-immunity-coronavirus-intl/index.html Sweden has revealed that despite adopting more relaxed measures to control coronavirus, only 7.3% of people in Stockholm had developed the antibodies needed to fight the disease by late April. The figure, which Sweden's Public Health Authority confirmed to CNN, is roughly similar to other countries that have data and well below the 70-90% needed to create "herd immunity" in a population. It comes after the country adopted a very different strategy to stop the spread of coronavirus to other countries by only imposing very light restrictions on daily life. (More at above url)
Sweden's former health chief says the country's coronavirus strategy 'hasn't been the smartest' and it should've spent at least a month locked down https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/21/health/sweden-herd-immunity-coronavirus-intl/index.html Sweden's lockdown-free pandemic strategy is a global outlier. The country has recently seen its coronavirus death rate soar, with many of the oldest, frailest people left vulnerable to catching the virus. Former state epidemiologist Annika Linde said recently in an interview with Swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter that the country, in hindsight, probably should've instituted a lockdown. "I think we're starting to see that the Swedish model maybe hasn't been the smartest in every respect," she said. Sweden was the only country that remained fully open as the novel coronavirus tore through Europe. Now, it seems the nation is paying a deadly price for its choice. Sweden has one of the highest coronavirus death rates of any country — per capita, it's now worse than any other in Europe. Open letters signed by more than 2,000 Swedish scientists in April urged the country to reconsider a lockdown. But so far, it has not. Swedish people are simply urged instead to frequently wash hands, stay home when sick, and generally use common sense. The man in charge of this comparatively lax coronavirus-fighting strategy is Swedish state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell, who has run the country's public health strategy since 2013. "The death toll really came as a surprise to us," he recently told The Daily Show. "We never really calculated with a high death toll initially, I must say." But it appears Tegnell's predecessor would've run things differently if given the chance. "I think we're starting to see that the Swedish model maybe hasn't been the smartest in every respect," former Swedish state epidemiologist Annika Linde, who served from 2005 to 2013, recently said in a Swedish-language interview with the daily Stockholm newspaper Dagens Nyheter. The retired public servant laid out what she thinks has gone wrong in Sweden, and how, if she were to rewind time, she would've reserved at least a month to lock down the country and better prepare for life with the coronavirus. Lockdowns save lives, and Linde says Sweden should have used one "If we had to do this over again, I think we should have imposed significantly tougher restrictions from the beginning," she told DN. "We should have known how underprepared we were in healthcare, and elder care. A shutdown could have given us a chance to prepare ourselves, think things through, and radically slow the spread of infection." She suggested a month-long closure might have bought the country some time to prepare. Nearly half of Sweden's 3,871 deaths have been clustered in elder care homes, and among some of the oldest, and thus most coronavirus-vulnerable, people. Many older Swedish people are not wearing masks, and neither are their caregivers. Linde said a Swedish strategy where sick caretakers simply stay home until they're better, and regular handwashing is encouraged, doesn't fully take into account how well people can transmit this virus without feeling sick, and how easily it spreads with close contact. "That turned out to be totally insufficient in light of all the possible vectors of transmission that go hand-in-hand with the kind of work you have to do when you're caring for people," she said. "It was a clear misjudgment." Now everyone is bent on "blaming someone else" for Sweden's high death rate, she said. "At its core, it's the government that allowed this to happen, " she said in the interview. "I do not think that our strategy will result in the best outcome in the long run." (More at above url)
The article below could explain why Sweden does not have more antibodies but at the same time its fatalities are decreasing..... It maybe the virus is mostly spread by super spreaders. (perhaps exclusively) So its is possible that very few in the low risk group spread the virus once they catch it. So it could be that the low risk group is infected by those with compromised immune systems. (Those in the high risk group. ) It could be that the low risk group statistically speaking does not spread Covid to other low risk people. So herd immunity make take a very long time to build... but it is unnecessary if we isolate the superspreaders. So in a strange way ... we should not be isolating the low risk group to protect the high risk group... we should be isolating the high risk group to protect other high risks and the low risk group. https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-67 Results: Our model suggested a high degree of individual-level variation in the transmission of COVID-19. Within the current consensus range of R0 (2-3), the overdispersion parameter k of a negative-binomial distribution was estimated to be around 0.1 (median estimate 0.1; 95% CrI: 0.05-0.2 for R0 = 2.5), suggesting that 80% of secondary transmissions may have been caused by a small fraction of infectious individuals (~10%). A joint estimation yielded likely ranges for R0 and k (95% CrIs: R0 1.4-12; k 0.04-0.2); however, the upper bound of R0 was not well informed by the model and data, which did not notably differ from that of the prior distribution. Conclusions: Our finding of a highly-overdispersed offspring distribution highlights a potential benefit to focusing intervention efforts on superspreading. As most infected individuals do not contribute to the expansion of an epidemic, the effective reproduction number could be drastically reduced by preventing relatively rare superspreading events. Last edited: 36 minutes ago
Sweden’s Covid-19 strategy has caused an ‘amplification of the epidemic’ https://www.france24.com/en/2020051...y-has-caused-an-amplification-of-the-epidemic Sweden is famously one of the few countries to have opted against a lockdown to contain the spread of the coronavirus. But given that the country has a much higher death toll per million than its Nordic neighbours, many observers have suggested that the Swedish approach has failed. While countries across the world have eased Covid-19 lockdowns over recent weeks, Sweden stands out: it never imposed confinement measures to begin with. As billions hunkered down throughout the globe in late March, Swedish bars, restaurants, hairdressers, gyms and even primary and middle schools stayed open. There have been some exceptions. Secondary schools and museums have been closed, sport fixtures cancelled and gatherings of more than 50 people banned. Swedes have been asked to stay at home if they are over 70 or are feeling unwell. Social distancing has been requested in public places. And on Thursday, the government urged Swedes to avoid unnecessary international travel and to limit car journeys within the country to two hours. But even these measures – minimal by the standards of numerous other countries – have been laxly enforced. Police are unable to impose fines to enforce social distancing; they can only tell people to comply. The Swedish approach has won praise from figures on the American right such as Fox News host Tucker Carlson, who have suggested that it provides a model for the US to follow. ‘People who think they can’t die’ In making the case for its unorthodox policy, Stockholm has pointed to high levels of trust in Swedish society, arguing that people could be expected to take precautions without being told to. “There are people who are really diligent and are doing exactly what they should do, but there are too many who don’t,” said Elisabeth Asbrink, a Swedish author, freelance journalist and prominent critic of the government’s approach. In parts of Stockholm, “people are doing all the things they usually do, as if there’s no need to keep a distance”, she continued. “I’ve also visited Malmo (Sweden’s third-biggest city) and there’s a lot of people there who think they can’t die, somehow; they think they’re unapproachable by this disease.” Figures compiled by data analysis website Statista show that the total number of confirmed Covid-19 cases in Sweden has been increasing steadily since the beginning of April – and now stands at more than 29,000. Statistics suggest that Sweden has performed poorly compared to its Scandinavian neighbours, which imposed strict lockdowns. Experts say the other Nordic countries are the most apt points of comparison, given their similar healthcare systems, socio-political cultures and levels of connectedness. Reported coronavirus deaths per million in Sweden stand at 358, according to Statista – even higher than the hard-hit US, at 267. The Swedish figure is dramatically worse than those of Denmark (93), Finland (53) and Norway (44). In Sweden, “we’re seeing an amplification of the epidemic, because there’s simply more social contact”, said Lynn Goldman, dean of the Milken Institute School of Public Health at George Washington University in the US. In response to a comment in late April hailing Sweden’s performance, Nicolas Nassim Taleb – a professor of risk engineering at New York University, famous for his book on probability and uncertainty The Black Swan – tweeted back: “Stop the bullshit. Sweden did HORRIBLE [sic] compared to Norway Denmark Finland.” ‘They didn’t have time to take care of my mother’ Many Swedish experts have lambasted the government’s response to the pandemic. Twenty-two doctors and scientists demanded a change of tack in an editorial piece in the newspaper Dagens Nyheter, published on April 14. “The approach must be changed radically and quickly,” they implored. “As the virus spreads, we need to increase social distance […] Politicians must intervene, there is no alternative.” As in many other countries, nursing homes have been a particular source of anguish. Although visits were banned on March 31, half of those 70 and older in Sweden who have died from Covid-19 were living in nursing homes, according to figures released at the end of April. Staff have warned that they lack personal protective equipment. “They didn’t have time to take care of my mother,” one Stockholm resident – who claims his mother died of neglect in a nursing home while more than a third of its residents succumbed to the virus – told Agence-France-Presse last week. “There are things which could have been done, and should be done, that would have altered the picture radically,” said Lena Einhorn, a Swedish virologist and critic of the government’s policy. If Sweden had implemented “a broad testing programme, and especially in elder care”, she continued, the authorities would have “known who is infected, and now, with antibody testing, who was infected”. Einhorn said two further policies would have made a significant difference, without necessitating a full-blown lockdown: “If Sweden mandated a 14-day quarantine for all household members of someone sick with Covid-19, we would not have had this picture”, and if the country “closed restaurants, there would have been less possibility of aerosol spread (airborne transmission) of the virus”. ‘Politicians are not taking visible responsibility’ The Swedish government has said that its policies are effectively decided by scientific officials such as the state’s chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell, who has become a well-known and popular figure in the country since the start of the pandemic. But Asbrink argued that this is having a negative effect on political debate in Sweden: “The decisions that they are making are of course political – they make choices – and I think it is a problem that Swedish politicians have not taken visible responsibility for the strategy, as they have in the other Nordic countries.” The purpose of the country’s strategy has been much debated. Swedish Foreign Minister Ann Linde told FRANCE 24’s Clovis Casali in early May that “we don’t have a strategy of herd immunity” – referring to the phenomenon that occurs when a high proportion of a population contracts and thereby gains immunity from an illness, thus stopping the disease’s spread and indirectly protecting everyone else. “We don't want to stop all transmission; we want to flatten the curve,” Linde said. However, Einhorn said that “they have denied it, but under their breaths they have acknowledged” a herd immunity strategy. She pointed to Tegnell’s comments in an interview with newspaper Aftonbladet in March: He said that the “basic idea” of herd immunity is “probably starting to become more and more relevant the more we see of this virus”.
'The price you pay': Sweden's 'herd immunity' experiment backfires https://www.sfgate.com/science/article/Sweden-herd-immunity-experiment-backfires-covid-15289437.php Unlike its Nordic neighbors, Sweden decided early on in the pandemic to forgo lockdown in the hope of achieving broad immunity to the coronavirus. While social distancing was promoted, the government allowed bars, restaurants, salons, gyms and schools to stay open. Initially, Sweden saw death rates from COVID-19 that were similar to other European nations that had closed down their economies. But now the Scandinavian nation’s daily death toll per 1 million people is 8.71 compared to the United States’ 4.59, according to online publication Our World in Data. Sweden's mortality rate is the highest in Europe. "I’d say it hasn’t worked out so well," said Dr. George Rutherford, professor of epidemiology at the University of California, San Francisco. "I think the mortality in Norway is something like ten-fold lower. That’s the real comparator." (Norway's daily death rate is less than .01 per 1 million people.) (More at above url)
Just 7.3% of Stockholm had Covid-19 antibodies by end of April, study shows https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...dies-by-end-of-april-study-sweden-coronavirus Just 7.3% of Stockholm’s inhabitants had developed Covid-19 antibodies by the end of April, according to a study, raising concerns that the country’s light-touch approach to the coronavirus may not be helping it build up broad immunity. The research by Sweden’s public health agency comes as Finland warned it would be risky to welcome Swedish tourists after figures suggested the country’s death rate per capita was the highest in Europe over the seven days to 19 May. Sweden’s state epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, said the antibodies figure was “a bit lower than we’d thought”, but added that it reflected the situation some weeks ago and he believed that by now “a little more than 20%” of the capital’s population had probably contracted the virus. However, the public health agency had previously said it expected about 25% to have been infected by 1 May and Tom Britton, a maths professor who helped develop its forecasting model, said the figure from the study was surprising. “It means either the calculations made by the agency and myself are quite wrong, which is possible, but if that’s the case it’s surprising they are so wrong,” he told the newspaper Dagens Nyheter. “Or more people have been infected than developed antibodies.” Björn Olsen, a professor of infectious medicine at Uppsala University, said herd immunity was a “dangerous and unrealistic” approach. “I think herd immunity is a long way off, if we ever reach it,” he told Reuters after the release of the antibody findings. Tegnell has denied herd immunity is a goal in itself, saying Sweden aims instead to slow the spread of the virus enough for health services to cope. But he has also said countries that imposed strict lockdowns could be more vulnerable to a second wave of infections because a smaller percentage of their populations would be immune. In April, officials estimated one third of Stockholm residents would have contracted Covid-19 by early May, subsequently suggesting that the capital could reach herd immunity of between 40% and 60% by the middle of June. (More at above url)
Such Bullshit pushed almost everyday by the doomers No lockdown vs lockdown... results in the middle. a large percent of the deaths coming early on in nursing homes? Would you rather be hiding in GWB's basement as the death rates come down naturally because the models were liess (in the 1st world) or Sweden having a beer with these people.... keeping you business and jobs open as best you can. keeping the suicide rate date keeping depressions away. making sure people access medical care? https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-coronavirus-per-capita-death-rate-among-highest-2020-5