PM: Sweden's health officials misjudged virus resurgence https://www.whio.com/news/health/pm-swedens-health/FIUPO27FBNHAAMJ4K2CZZK5QFI/ Health officials in Sweden, which opted not to respond to the first wave of COVID-19 with a national lockdown, misjudged the power of the virus's resurgence, the country's prime minister said Tuesday, and an independent commission criticized the country's strategy. “I think that most people in the profession didn't see such a wave in front of them, they talked about different clusters,” Prime Minister Stefan Lofven told the Swedish Aftonbladet newspaper. Later Tuesday a commission that has looked into Sweden’s handling of the pandemic released its preliminary conclusions — which were particularly critical of provisions made for the elderly. The country of just over 10 million has seen 341,029 confirmed infections and 7,667 virus-related deaths, a death toll much higher than in neighbors Norway, Finland or Denmark. Over the summer, Sweden’s left-leaning minority government had said a commission would be appointed once the crisis was over but came under pressure to act sooner. The commission said in its report that the strategy to protect the nation's elderly partly failed, and its head stressed that the current and the previous governments would bear the “ultimate responsibility” for the situation. Commission President Mats Melin told a press conference that elderly care in Sweden has major structural shortcomings and the country has proved unprepared and ill-equipped to meet the pandemic. The commission also considered that several measures taken in the spring were late and insufficient. Melin said the blame for structural shortcomings in Sweden’s health care system could be placed on several authorities and organizations. “But we still want to say that the government governs the country and that the ultimate responsibility therefore rests with the government and previous governments,” Melin said. Sweden’s statistical agency said Monday it had recorded a total of 8,088 deaths from all causes in November — the highest overall mortality since the first year of the Spanish flu that raged across the world from 1918 through 1920. In November 1918, 16,600 people died in the Scandinavian country, said Tomas Johansson of Statistics Sweden. Lofven's government and chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell have defended the country’s controversial coronavirus strategy, despite Sweden having one of the highest per capita COVID-19 death rates in the world. Sweden has stood out among European and other nations for the way it has handled the pandemic, for long not mandating lockdowns like other nations but relying on citizens’ sense of civic duty. Authorities have advised people to practice social distancing, but schools, bars and restaurants have been kept open the entire time and urged people to focus on good hygiene and social distancing to stem the outbreak. Still, authorities, including Tegnell, have been criticized — and some have apologized — for failing to protect the elderly and nursing home residents. Tuesday's commission report said Sweden's Nordic neighbors paid more attention to elderly citizens' care during the pandemic. “In the other Nordic countries ... care for the elderly seems to have been more in focus in the authorities’ early pandemic measures," the report said. In the fall, Sweden saw a rapid increase in new coronavirus cases that strained its health care system. Infections have spread quickly among medical staff, pushing the government to back more restrictions, including a nationwide ban on the sale of alcohol after 10 p.m. in bars and restaurants. Sweden has also imposed its tightest virus restrictions to date by banning public gatherings of more than eight people.
How Sweden is being forced to abandon its failing Covid-19 strategy The country hailed by lockdown sceptics has suffered one of the worst second waves in Europe. https://www.newstatesman.com/world/...-forced-abandon-its-failing-covid-19-strategy The tone was solemn, the message stark: “Don’t go to the gym. Don’t go to the library. Don’t have dinners. Don’t have parties. Cancel.” The grim words came from Swedish prime minister Stefan Löfven in a televised address on 16 November, in which he announced a ban on public events of more than eight people. At first glance, it appeared that Sweden, which had eschewed strict lockdowns since the start of the pandemic, had reversed its stance after spiralling Covid-19 infection rates. Was this an admission that the Swedish strategy had failed? During the first wave of coronavirus, Sweden left most decisions on social distancing in the hands of individuals. People were asked to work from home if possible and avoid public transport, and many complied, but in legal terms the only major restriction on people’s freedoms was a ban on events of more than 500 people, a number that was later reduced to 50. A temporary law that allowed the government to close transport hubs, restaurants or shopping centres expired in July without being used. Anti-lockdown activists around the world looked to Sweden for inspiration, and Swedish flags were waved at protests in London, Berlin and the US. Sweden’s strategy was fronted not by politicians, but by the country’s Public Health Agency and its chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell. His stated aim was to impose measures that would be sustainable over time and would prevent hospitals from becoming overwhelmed, rather than completely suppressing the disease. He also thought natural herd immunity would play a role in slowing the virus’s spread The first wave in Sweden was brutal: by June over 5,000 people had died after being infected with Covid-19. A study by Imperial College showed that while overall excess deaths in Sweden, at 58 per 100,000 for men and 49 per 100,000 for women, were lower than in countries including the UK, Spain and Belgium, neighbouring Norway, Denmark and Finland had no detectable excess deaths in the first wave. By the autumn, however, the picture appeared more positive. As the second wave gathered pace in the UK and other parts of Europe, infections in Sweden remained low. As recently as the first week of October, Tegnell said he thought Sweden’s approach, with voluntary measures designed to gain public acceptance, might help it avoid a full-blown second wave. That hope would soon be dispelled. By the end of November infections were rapidly accelerating, with a 14-day rate of 698 cases per 100,000, compared to 316 in the UK or 346 in Denmark. On 9 December Stockholm’s health authority declared that 99 per cent of its intensive care beds were occupied and asked national authorities to help them find extra staff. The capital has since requested assistance from the country’s military, while Finland and Norway have offered outside support. Sweden’s cumulative death rate per million people (744) is around seven times higher than those of its Nordic neighbours and its caseload is rising at the fastest rate of almost any European country. Amid increasing government alarm, and with the first part of a report on the handling of the pandemic due this month, the Public Health Agency has been sidelined. Recent decisions have seemingly been taken in the face of opposition from Tegnell. When public gatherings of more than eight were banned, Tegnell immediately took to the airwaves to distance himself from the decision: “We have absolutely not put our foot down [to insist on the restrictions],” he said. But what has changed beyond the rhetoric? Reports that Sweden has now entered lockdown are incorrect: the rule of eight applies only to public gatherings such as plays, operas, film showings, lectures, religious services and markets. Löfven said he wanted people to treat eight as the maximum in all circumstances, but private gatherings of more than that are not banned. Restaurants remain open, though last orders of alcohol have been set for 10pm and tables, which can’t be set for more than eight diners each, must be spaced one metre apart. Other rules technically have the force of law, but are in practice unenforceable. From 14 December a string of guidelines will take the form of “regulations”, which are legally binding, rather than “general guidance”, which is not. However, the regulations are mostly vague, encouraging people in general terms to limit their contacts with others, and there are no sanctions for breaking them. In the case of protective masks, there are neither rules nor recommendations: the government is so far upholding the Public Health Agency’s insistence that masks’ effectiveness is unproven, despite the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, which awards the Nobel Medicine Prize, last month endorsing them. But even without strict regulations, there is evidence that many Swedes are socially distancing. Google mobility data shows that the number of people using public transport has fallen by 43 per cent since the pandemic began, a similar decline to the UK. While reports of people with desk jobs being forced to go into the office abound, home-working has become the norm for many. In a poll for the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency during the second half of November, a quarter of Swedes said they were following official guidance more closely than before. Yet the government appears to believe that more is needed: on 9 December it published draft legislation that would allow it to close shops, gyms and public transport. The law, if passed, won’t take effect until 15 March. Could the government have done more, sooner? Health minister Lena Hallengren claims opposition amendments made the pandemic law passed this spring unusable. Many legal experts disagree and say that a broader shutdown of society would have been possible. So where does this leave Sweden’s famed strategy? The country’s death toll and significant second wave certainly give little succour to lockdown sceptics, even if the hit to economic growth (a fall in GDP of 3.4 per cent is projected for 2020 by the European Commission) has been lower than in most other EU countries (the average is 7.4 per cent). And with the Swedish government gradually moving in favour of more restrictions, the Swedish flag might flutter less often at anti-lockdown protests around the world.
Sweden has recorded its deadliest November since the Spanish Flu outbreak in 1918 https://www.sbs.com.au/news/sweden-...vember-since-the-spanish-flu-outbreak-in-1918
So now monthly data matters? I thought if you looked at January-November deaths it was irrelevant??? Germany has recorded above average weekly deaths virtually every week this year (since week 11). How did that mask mandate and lockdown work for them?
And the deaths per million for Germany are lower in the daily chart than Sweden across 2020. https://ourworldindata.org/coronavi...othing=7&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc
And any thinking person reviewing that chart would (with respect to the second wave) could draw no legitimate conclusion with respect to effectiveness of the countries response relative to the other. All sorts of other info would probably have a larger bearing. Like what do they classify as a death due to Covid. Age. Country of Origin. Were they in nursing homes? Did they have co morbidities. Those charts are very similar.
Let's see how things are going in no-lockdown paradise Sweden... Experts Call for Sweden Lockdown As COVID Deaths Soar, 'Enough Is Enough' https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-sweden-deaths-rise-covid-strategy-calls-lockdown-1555177 As total coronavirus deaths in Sweden, where a nationwide lockdown was never imposed, approach 7,700, calls for a lockdown and stricter measures to be implemented are rising among health officials. The country's seven-day average of deaths has been rising sharply since late October, before dipping in recent days from early December, according to data compiled by Worldometer. Bjorn Eriksson, the health and medical care director for the Stockholm region, warned: "We are far beyond 100 percent of capacity in intensive care. We are approaching almost double the number of available spaces," at a press conference on Tuesday. Eriksson noted at a press briefing last week: "Enough is enough. It simply cannot be worth it, to have after-work drinks and hustle of Christmas present shopping...the consequences are horrible." By January 2, the country's death toll is forecast to surpass 10,000 even with "rapid vaccine rollout," which would see vaccine distribution scaled up for 45 days, according to the latest projection by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington. The country's daily death count is projected to reach around 117 on December 25 and 163 on January 1. These projected figures would be reached if "vaccine distribution is scaled up over 90 days" and "governments do not re-impose mandates if cases increase," according to the IHME. Both projections are much higher than the latest average daily death count of 17 reported on December 15, according to Worldometer. Karin Hildebrand, a cardiologist in the intensive care unit (ICU) of the Sodersjukhuset hospital in Stockholm, also warned: "I'm afraid it's going to get even worse. We all fear the coming weeks. We do not have enough personnel to deal with this," The New York Times reported Tuesday. Sweden's ICUs are forecast to reach nearly full capacity by January 13, when the number of ICU beds projected to be needed will peak at around 690, edging closer to the 710 ICU beds available, according to the latest projection from the IHME. Tove Fall, a professor of molecular epidemiology at Uppsala University near Stockholm told The Times: "We need a few weeks of lockdown to get the numbers down," noting "Other countries are taking much higher precautions at lower transmission levels." "I was hoping this grave situation would change things, but yesterday they opened the ski lifts in Sweden," Fredrik Elgh, a professor of clinical virology at Umea University and outspoken critic of the country's COVID-19 strategy, told The Times. "Taking such actions into account, I don't think the government is taking the firm action I had hoped for. "We are the only democracy in the world that does not recommend the use of face masks. There are more than 170 countries in the world that recommend using masks. But here they are saying there is not enough science behind that. That is nonsense," Elgh added. Under current Swedish law, the government is not able to enforce stay-at-home orders or impose fines on those who violate recommended safety guidelines. But the government was reported to be drafting an emergency law that would allow it to mandate lockdowns and close businesses when the virus is spreading, according to The Times. The latest warnings come as a report by the country's coronavirus commission highlighted several "shortcomings" of Sweden's combat strategy, including its "failed" approach to protecting the elderly and "remarkably poor" access to personal protective equipment (PPE) in care homes. "We have found that elderly care was unprepared and ill-equipped when the pandemic struck and that this was founded in structural shortcomings that were known long before the outbreak of the virus. The ultimate responsibility for these shortcomings rests with the Government in power–and with the previous governments that also possessed this information. Newsweek has contacted The Public Health Agency of Sweden, the Swedish government and The National Board of Health and Welfare for comment. In late October, new restrictions were introduced in Sweden following consecutive rises in weekly new infections. Speaking to Newsweek at the time, Dr. Anders Tegnell, the chief state epidemiologist at The Public Health Agency of Sweden who is behind the country's anti-lockdown strategy, said: "It [the latest measures in October] is not a lockdown but some extra recommendations might be communicated locally when a need from the regional authorities is communicated." When asked what were the main reasons that prompted this shift in the country's COVID-19 strategy, Tegnell told Newsweek at the time: "That on the national level the development is fairly stable but local development might happen and will need local solutions," adding that the new restrictions "will be decided according to the local epidemiology and needs." Back in late April, Tegnell claimed the decision to not issue a lockdown "worked in some aspects because our health system has been able to cope," in an interview with BBC's Radio Four's Today program. "At least 50 percent of our death toll is within elderly homes and we have a hard time understanding how a lockdown would stop the introduction of disease. "We already had a law making it illegal for visitors to come to elderly homes. They need constant care, they need a lot of people coming and going to take care of them. "So it's a bit unclear to us if a lockdown really would have stopped this from happening or not," Tegnell added. The wider picture The novel coronavirus has infected more than 73.6 million people, including over 16.7 million in the U.S., since it was first reported in Wuhan, China. More than 1.6 million people have died worldwide and over 41.7 million have recovered as of Wednesday, according to John Hopkins University. (More at above url)
Doesn't look any worse than April, and seems to be getting better. Sweden number twenty-four in deaths per 1M pop.
Sweden's prime minister admits the country got its coronavirus strategy wrong https://www.businessinsider.com/swe...stimated-strenght-virus-lofven-stefan-2020-12 Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Lofven said in a new interview that Sweden underestimated the coronavirus. The country had predicted that its no-lockdown policy would prevent a so-called second wave of the virus. Hospitals in Swedish cities, however, are now running out of intensive-care beds. "I think that most people in the profession didn't see such a wave in front of them — they talked about different clusters," Lofven told the newspaper Aftonbladet. The Swedish government is drafting emergency legislation to allow lockdowns and business closings. (More at above url)