Has implications for US Treasuries and Gold markets... All in all, still the "cleanest dirty shirt" among currencies. Speaking of the possibility of crucial $USD strength.... I read somewhere that someone posited the notion... that as the rest of the world markets rush to debase their currencies, the $USD could become the "last man standing"... where foreigners give up on their local currencies and markets and pile into the $USD and our stock/bond markets as safe havens. If so, would result in our markets soaring along with the $USD. Makes sense as a logical possibility for the back burner... FWIW...
Only shallow thinking punters “bash” the Dollar. The PBC maintains a huge FX Desk for the purpose pegging the Remnibi artificially low against the Dollar. Draghi and the ECB have made it clear that they want to continue cutting rates further into negative territory and the Bank and Currency Desks take this as the EU’s strategy to depreciate the Euro vs the Dollar as a means to compete. Russian mobsters wash hundreds of billions of currency for fresh dollars every year (ask the Dutch). So while the punters piss on the Dollar the big swinging dicks are buying them.
Scat, it's very interesting. Even with the fed cutting here, the dollar continues to rise. Will be interesting to see the next few days for confirmation but are we turning into a Japan 2.0 when the yen kept rising in value as yields kept going lower?
Competitive devaluation/depreciation led to the Great Depression of 1929. Nowadays in spite of what believers in Modern Monetary Theory espouse, we will likely end up in hyperinflation and a depression simultaneously.
Yep. Under this (correct ) scenario, it's necessary for USD to maintain strength. The wave will begin with EM, IOW, from the outside in. Nothing there yet. Brexit (end of Oct2019 maybe?)may cause some "inconsequential" EM black swan issues, with Euro ties... Ultimately, in the end, we will all get to see that the Masters of the business cycle, The Masters of Finance, the Masters of the Universe have been clueless and naked. Not happening tomorrow however. When Fed Funds nears 3, folks best be ready.