I am sorry, but at this point it's beyond painfully obvious that a major market crash is imminent in the upcoming months. It's a miracle how everything is still holding together. Everything is failing but they just swipe every (bank) failure under the rug, keep printing more money and pumping up the price. The manipulation is so obvious. All shorts get squeezed, as many people as possible get lured in and then the rug is pulled. This is not rocket science and doesn't take a genius to figure out.
Of course it's had a growing phase and now it's in the deflating phase or perhaps a superposition thereof one being more weighted over time than the other and the Piper has to pay its dues obviously but to evoke 1929 is just a desperate attempt to scare people because Trump benefits from people being scared grifter in Chief. I don't know why people are panicking this was inevitable and it was only a matter of when. Well it doesn't matter I'm focusing on honing my tools to better calibrate this market whatever state it may be in and then I'm going to proceed an arming the generals of capitalism so that they can make better informed trades for themselves and their constituents or whoever is in the funds that they manage. I recently studied and was considering implementing a model where the phase was a distinct thing that was based on the sign of a parameter that was calibrated but the model that I've chosen to implement is such that it does not require or have a parameter that directly determines whether it's crashing or in an upper trend, but that it's always in a state that can be described by the parameters of the process. Going forward live the diagnostic is that if any of the calibration process results in predictions that are out of line etc that would result in the system or refusing to trade and indicate manual intervention required basically you have likelihood scores when you calibrate your model and you can apply theorems from statistics that gives you a way to assess the accuracy of the model which directly determines whether it's a good idea to use it or not. If the market suddenly shifted such that the SPX and VIX no longer were perfectly calibratable with the quadratic rough Heston that would indeed imply some rather massive structural break in the system
You once posted this message way back when - regarding something:- Talk is cheap. You are saying staring at the chart all week wouldn't be a problem. Well why aren't you doing so? It's very hard to make it without having a mentor that is already successful. There's a lot of trial and error to come and pain to endure and you still won't know what are you really doing. If i were starting all over again, i'd rather put the effort into finding a mentor, even though i have no idea where and how to find one. #13 Sep 1, 2019
It's tiresome to hear this view of our deficit, including the absurdity of "paying it off"; yet I admit that from the perspective of the private sector, and absent in-depth analysis, our deficit can not be distinguished from real debt. Only when looked at from the perspective of a disembodied government can it be recognized that what we call "government debt" is not debt at all. In reality, it is simply a consequence of the government a) having supplied the private sector with money for commerce while fulfilling its own needs for goods and services; b) having supplied sufficient money and bonds to support the Dollar's role as a reserve currency; c) having accommodated Congress's desired to spend without taxing equivalently. All of this new money created by deficit spending is first spent into the economy and then converted to Treasury securities before it is partially converted back, by the Fed, to non-interest paying money. The aggregate deficit is the money left in the private sector economy after taxes. Without a deficit there would be no money left. With population growth and productivity gains, we can expect a higher and higher aggregate deficit*, or what the rest of you, and virtually all economists -- even the ones who know it is not -- call our "debt". The level of government spending is important, but what we spend on is more important. When it comes to spending on investment the only constraint should be inflation, but because we tax too little at the high end, we run higher deficits than necessary and increase the risk of future inflation. During Reagan's administration, Congress collapsed the upper income tax brackets into one low bracket which accelerated both the growth rates of the deficit and wealth inequality.** The former risks future inflation; the latter, loss of our democracy. In fact we may have already lost our democracy and are simply living under an illusion. For further discussion see: https://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/wp_900.pdf ____________________ *Otherwise damaging deflation would result. **Return on capital exceeds growth of GDP; thus those with invested disposable income, through the power of compounding, can grow their wealth exponentially over time compared with the relatively stagnant wealth of those without disposable income to invest.
"The absurdity of saying" ...... "having supplied the private sector with money ......" Printing beyond any real measure of taxation to back it nowadays. THAT is absurd and creates a vicious circle of The FED chasing its tail to stop it all from collapsing.
You of course realize that I never post much about the specific amount of new money supplied. Keep in mind that the reserve status of the dollar requires that the U.S. government supply the private sector with more dollars and dollar denominated securities than would be needed were the dollar not the most used reserve currency. We are obligated to run a negative current account balance for the same reason. I have a question (I know, I know I have to keep it short!). Just where does our money come from if not our government?
Supply, not oversupply. And yes of course the money comes from the government .... printing press - which never seems to run out of paper and ink or digital paper and ink. Now I've got a question - what happens to the 30+ trillions of dollars of debt and counting, the very next day after we lose our global reserve currency status? Next year (of course not likely), next decade, whenever it happens. What then?