In or out

Discussion in 'Trading' started by kybandit, Apr 12, 2011.

  1. jokepie

    jokepie

    It does not matter if its POT or MON or AAPL... there is no point holding anything that is depriciating in value... how long ?? - it depends on how much time and money you have.

    trust the friend - Trend !!

    Talk to some EXPERT Fin advisor and go over ur options asap.
    You dont want to ride a Ghost Car.
     
    #11     Apr 12, 2011
  2. NoDoji

    NoDoji

    I took a very nasty hit with POT as a new trader because I moved my stop loss to a deeper breakdown level instead of taking the small loss my initial stop would've given me. It was the difference between an $800 loss based on my initial stop (which I had the sense to place at a level that indicated my trade was very unlikely to succeed), and a realized loss of over $6000 based on moving my stop to a "disaster" level which definitely confirmed beyond the shadow of a doubt the long train had derailed and was now falling over the cliff.

    There's a very wise saying that applies to trading: "The first loss is the best loss."

    POT wasn't my only "face smashed into the sidewalk" trade, it was my first of many, and in every case I could've exited the failed trade for a small loss when the validity of the setup was no longer supported by price. At the point technical price action violates your setup, the only thing supporting your trade is your own opinion and the Trader's Prayer ("Dear God, please get me out of this break even and I promise to never ever do this again."), neither of which has ever been demonstrated to influence price.

    So here is your crash course in technical trading and I recommend you educate yourself on all common trending patterns and trend reversal patterns, as well as the meaning of price support and price resistance, so you can put on appropriate size to support a hard stop loss at the place where the trend isn't your friend anymore in your particular time frame and holding period.

    Based on your position size it would seem like you were working a day trade, or a very short short term swing trade based on a technical price breakout. Yet you've been holding through a short term trend breakdown as if you were a long term investor.

    You bought a narrow range breakout in an established uptrend. Well done! Based on the size you traded, you have to decide where you're comfortable taking a loss if the uptrend shows signs of reversing.

    For me, a breakout must hold above the range high (range resistance). I want POT to stay above 61.70 if price pulls back following my entry. Some traders will use the a break of range low (range support) as their stop loss level (a break of 59.86). Some will use a break of the price at which previous resistance should hold as support in an uptrend (in this case, the Jan 18th 58.10 high). With smaller size and a longer term holding period, deeper stop levels might be used.

    So it's all about your position size, your expected hold time, your expected profit target, and the ability of price to demonstrate the strength or weakness you're looking for. When price fails, get out. You can always get back in later.

    In a trend I want to see higher highs and higher lows, which is why I wouldn't hold a breakout if price dropped below the range low of 59.86. In fact I wouldn't hold a breakout there on POT if price didn't run at least 3.00 before pulling back, because a weak breakout is usually a reversal signal. This was a pretty weak breakout, what is sometimes referred to as a failed final flag in a strong trend.

    Keep it small while you're learning and learn to take the small losses, so the winners can pay for them!

    [​IMG]
     
    #12     Apr 12, 2011
    Datum likes this.
  3. kybandit

    kybandit

    I bailed...Thanks to all for the advice...I made a bad trade admittedly...I have been using stops but as soon as I hit the buy , it dropped 10 points before I got back later to check it, app. 1 hr...What's the opinions on this trade....I bought 400 shares of aapl @ 331.80 this afternoon and set my stop at 330,80...Whats the upside look like for Apple??? Trying to recoup my 6100.00 loss on POT..
     
    #13     Apr 12, 2011
  4. A very nice post and analysis. Hopefully the OP will pay attention.

     
    #14     Apr 13, 2011
  5. Roark

    Roark

    I don't like the looks of AAPL for a trade to the long side. I think it looks better for a short. It made a lower high, a lower low, another lower high, and the question now is will it make another lower low?

    <img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=3152222"
     
    #15     Apr 13, 2011
  6. NoDoji

    NoDoji

    Apple's trading in a wide range, drifting downward, found support and may get back to the top of the down channel/20-day moving average (around $340) before they report earnings on 4/20, if the overall market complies. Apple tends to move with the overall market.

    You won't be in a state of mind to trade optimally (that is, to trade with an objective view based on what price is doing), if your goal is to get back what you lost.

    Wipe the slate clean of your loss and treat this as a brand new trade.

    I suggest learning the patterns on this web site, then studying the charts of the stocks you like to trade (I used to day trade AAPL and POT all the time), and identifying the setups and the levels at which you'd want to stop out if the setup fails.

    http://www.daytradingcoach.com/daytrading-technicalanalysis-course.htm

    These patterns work more often than not, but they do fail. The key is to cut the failures short and let the ones that work run to good reasonable profit targets.

    These patterns also work in all time frames.
     
    #16     Apr 13, 2011
  7. lindq

    lindq

    Man, if you are posting on ET (or ANY board) asking for advice on a trade you've already entered...you are in big trouble as a trader.

    Back up 5 steps and trade on paper before you put another penny at risk. Don't reenter the market until you have a solid plan in place, and enough confidence to put it to work.
     
    #17     Apr 13, 2011
  8. lynx

    lynx

    I just wanted to jump in a say "watch out!" Whenever I start to feel like I want to "recoup" a loss is when I start making bad decisions. Best just to try to forget about the loss, forgive yourself for making a mistake, and move forward.

    As others have said, play it small for a while until you get the hang of it.

    Also, I think you've gotten some really top-notch advice from others on this thread.
     
    #18     Apr 13, 2011
  9. I think you are a gambler.
     
    #19     Apr 13, 2011
  10. kybandit

    kybandit

    So true, always have been and will die one...But its hard for anyone to get in life where I'm at at the age of 46 by not taking chances...Retired and playing golf everyday...
     
    #20     Apr 13, 2011