I have had twice in my life 23 losing Futures trades in a row, once before using hedging and lost $5,000 as I was risking $200 per trade and the other I was up $25k because I hedged all 23 trades in Crude Oil, the 24th was getting short approx 147.00. My very long term commodities system seeks 75% of the range of last 9 years, so I expect to lose often and profitable trades are 5-15% per year. My risk on these trades are nearly zero because of the hedging, and since I go for the homerun profits, losses are very small on the hedge with one huge profit eventually. I have never gotten my long term percentages to be anything to speak about in 41 years of stock trading either, but reward to risk been more than 2 to 1 and now that too risk is nearly zero. I only go by back testing to show possibilities, but I don't learn much by losing trades as I am not trying to get more of them, but am always studying how not to lose on overall position. My study leans more on less drawdown in percentages and not how much I am going to make, all we can control mostly is risk.
Your approach in your very long term commodities system should not be argued with. It makes sense, especially since you also have a profitable intraday system. You are a perspicacious fellow. My comment had I think a larger group of traders in mind and was from an intraday perspective.
I think mainly cause of fees, makes more sense to do less trades like 1-3 per day, stay in longer and risk much less than profits. But from my standpoint trend trades are luck. Never know when it will happen, so risking as littler as possible way to go.
Exactly, not every move has the same potential, you should know how to recognize which ones have more potential and which ones don't. My personal experience is that trend trades are not luck. You have to find a way to see if, with high probability, the trend will reverse. And that is possible. You only need an advance of 1 minute, that's enough. Many times what people call luck is just a lack of the specifically needed knowledge (has nothing to do with being smart because of a high education). People tend to think that thins happening without them to understand why has all to do with luck. There are a lot of things that I don't understand that look like luck... till they explained me why it happened... Successful intraday trading is a very complex matter. But once you master it...