In need of a black swan event

just like in december before magic happen?...probably need a few percent hike...but than the US have to pay more interest on the treasuries(12 trillion?)....probably not going to happen.

 

http://www.theage.com.au/it-pro/short-the-queen-global-fund-managers-fear-brexit-20160517-goxj3e

 

Brexit is a pussy. Not a black swan.
A black swan is outside your schemata.
Therefore none of these "Tail Risk" is a swan.
Because they are all known unknowns.
Swans are unknown unknowns.

 

have you read N Taleb's latest book?
[there might be some ideas in it]

i'm about have way through Antifragile,
but i have to admit, it's not an easy read for me

marc

 

if they made it easy to read then we'll know exactly that they have no idea what's coming.

 

Antigragile
-> Asymmetries
-> Optionalities
-> Convexities

That's how I summarize it.
However it's not an easy read.
As you say. There is lots to learn about.
He's on his way for another book "The Logic of Risk Taking".
However I am a big fan of antifragility. I am also a big fan of anticipatory.

 

People would be glad one day remembering you said that!

 

To me this is a black swan.

 

why would a trader ever need to know the reasons of the market doing something be it a black swan of white dove? to prepare oneself? how? who cares why? who cares when?

 

Because greed dictate me to want to prepare to benefit from other's misery.