In four years, Obama will be heralded as the guy that saved the US economy.

Discussion in 'Politics & Religion' started by walter4, Mar 2, 2009.

  1. He will be seen as the guy who brought the United States out of the abyss. What better platform to start from than an economy the looks to be on the brink of disaster.

    Old timers in the market will tell you that a stock market bottom will come long before there is any good economic news. So, if the stock market bottoms, then rallies long before there is any good economic news, then who is doing the buying?

    The turmoil in the stock market is being exasperated by an endless wave a negative news. This has led to redemptions among hedge fund clients, and mutual fund investors. This being said, in my opinion, we are witnessing one of the best buying opportunities in our lifetimes.

    I will be brief since I am locked in to picking the proper time to add to client accounts, so here's what I believe we will see in the months and years ahead;

    1) I was petrified of the market when the Dow was above 14,000. I am not afraid of it at 7000. What I am personally afraid of is not further declines, but missing the market on the upside when it turns.

    2) Clearly, the stock market is in the midst of a toilet hugging barf, and in my opinion, the next best opportunity to add to the equity portion of investment portfolios will be below 7000 on the Dow Jones Industrials, and under 700 on the S&P 500. My calculations tell me that the market will be finish when it inflicts the maximum amount of pain to the maximum number of people.

    3) Bear Markets have five stages of grief:
    1) Denial
    2) Anger
    3) Negotiation
    4) Depression
    5) Acceptance

    The selloff in October and November had all the classic signs of the 4th phase which is depression. Now we have quickly approached the final capitulation phase which is acceptance. I don't know if we are staring at the bottom of the final phase now, or whether it will be later in the mid 600's on the S&P.

    4) Warren Buffett became a billionaire by investing during times of market turmoil. His favorite times to invest were the 1960-61, 1973-74, 1980-82, 1990,91, 2001-2003 recessions, and the recession were are experiencing now. When asked if he watched the CNBC business channel, he said; "yes, but I have the sound on mute." There is a great lesson to be learned here.

    5) In my opinion, risk in the stock market is greatly reduced when the following three things are factored in;

    a) A 25-50% declined in the broad market averages

    b) Buying quality, and investing in the Indexes, ETF's, and Sector Funds.

    c) Expanding your investment time frame from 3, 5, and 10 months to 3, 5, and 10 years.

    History does repeat itself, and whoever tells you "it's different this time" does not understand economic and market history. George Santayano, the Spanish-born American philosopher (1863-1952) said, "Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it."

    I've said it before, and it is worth repeating, IMO there is no way the powers that run this country are going to make Barrack Obama look bad 4 years from now.
  2. In 4 years, the market would have recovered regardless. Obama or not.
  3. Optimists..
  4. Das Vedania, Commrade!

    In 4 years we'll be halfway through the Depression (capital "D") and this piece of crap will be out of work.
  5. Hitler and Goebbels had a dilemma in 1931-1932...they were gaining nazi seats, but inflation was being tamed and unemployment was flattening. They were desperately worried the economy could recover before they could secure the majority and implement "change".

    As with basic human nature and documented crowd behaviour, the time to implement your radical socialist agenda is when times appear the worst. Do not put on a positive face, just insure the financial mood remains gloomy.

    "Change" requires fear. Dramatic "change" requires excessive fear.
  6. mtwokay


    You assume there is a market to recover.

    Obama is remaking Amerika in his image.

    How and when will the peeps stop this?

    I suspect those that voted for Obama will turn on him when they have lost 60% or more of their retirement funds.
  7. No, they will still blame is an endless cycle.
  8. I think we've got one more bull market before we go into a Great(er) Depression.

    Consumer debt isn't quite extreme/untenable enough to sustain this recession when banks resume lending.
  9. On beat the drums.....

    And under financial collapse the world will beg for a "global" messiah. We now have ours, but the "world" will have to wait a bit.

    I have heard a steady rythm of "global New Deal" over the past several weeks. Much more than the normal globalist rants of the past.

    And the drums continue......
  10. My wave counter suggests...

    1. Either (a) economic recovery by H1, '10... in that case, market bottom probably by May-June... or (b) decline continues to '13-'16.

    I'm thinking (b) is most likely. However, even if (b) is ultimately correct, low in May-June could bounce to maybe SP 1100.
    #10     Mar 2, 2009