Just a hint - the trend is your friend - At this point with the trend up how can I be anything but long? p.s. At a macro level I suspect that it would be hard to find anyone more bearish than I am as I expect the next several years to be extremely harsh. Although, I have been wrong at times in the past and am quite certain that I will be able to repeat my performance in the future. Best Regards Johno
Imo, the boomers are all going to living in RV's hanging out in WMT parking lots. Sort of a Polish tax revolution on owning a home (property taxes, maintenance, etc) and this would be one way to beat the energy costs. You got your wireless internet, phone and maybe once in a while a mobile MRI, flu shot, etc.
We haven't felt the full brunt of the recession in OZ yet, but I'm sure that it's coming. Our delusional Prime Minister has been crowing about how we have technically avoided the recession this quarter but many families are hurting and there is more to come! I was talking to some American Engineers from Nevada who had been flown out to commission the Gold Mine we were constructing, they intimated that the downturn created mixed results with some Americans getting crunched and others thriving. I assume that we will end up with the same result here. On a flight recently a Little Rock resident told me that you could easily buy a decent house for less than 2 years salary which is unheard of over here where it's more like 5 or 6. It's very hard to get a good handle on conditions in the U.S. considering all the conflicting information flowing around. Best Regards Johno
downturn created mixed results with some Americans getting crunched and others thriving. ---------------------- I think one point which is overlooked are those who are working and are nearing their last payments on auto's or similiar loans. Personally, I have less than a year on two loans which total 1k a month. I won't be making any long term debt in the near future. So this is a positive. The teens and kids in early 20's that have the service jobs are clueless, wether they live at home or on their own, they are used to making do just like we did when we were younger. MCD or subway and dunkin donuts employees will always be there. The boomers that are laid off collect unemployement for now and also fall under my first point and may also have a spouse who is working. They have homes and will just not spend. I think the people with the worst circumstances are those who might be upwardly mobile. They are currently stuck. Everyone in the news in dire straights are the same people who always have been that way, living on the edge of risk making poor choices along the way. Then of course, you have the hard luck stories, the medical bk's, Then those where both the spouses lost there job. Never diversifying. They worried about the day of reckoning but never took action.