My post was for a very limited purpose as I've stated in a prior comment. Baiting people or making people feel inadequate serves no purpose for me. Moreover, I consider myself a learner and usually do not direct my comments at anyone for the purpose of teaching anything. What I occasionally do, however, is to point in a direction that might be helpful. For anyone interested in the x,y,z, A,B,C stuff I would recommend going back to Grob's posts from late May for the beginning of the discussion and continue to monitor his posts going forward for further elaboration. Regardless, the formulation is just a new tool to transfer things that have been discussed more than once the past several years on here as well as some other sites. It is just a carrier of the signal which has stayed the same for as long as I've followed Jack's posts going back to the Usenet days.
'71 The x, y, z and A, B C stuff is an organization method for making money using a systemmic approach. SA (Systems Analysis) involves three components: the structure, the process within the structure and the ouput results of operating the process within the structure. All persons go into trading and investing at some point in time. Then, at that point, they have a defined starting point with respect to the system that they will "operate". The six elements above are articulated as a multilevel generation breakdown of compartments for stuff. A generation breakdown is the result where many levels of detail appear. I use 6 levels of detail Thus, for a person to make a scratch start in making money and then proceed to attain level after level of increasing money velocity, this approach represents a possible approach that is worthy of consideration. If a person approaches the opportunity from this vantage point for some period of time, then a lot can be known about how markets work and how people work and how the mutuality of these workings leads to effectiveness and efficiency in making money. Once mostly everything that matters is articulated, then anyone who has done this finds himself in a neat place and then he can have a viewpoint that allows for most circumstances, situations and conditions. This is very different than working to develop an edge. I use this as a template. I have it available to assess where another person might be. Since all people go through some process to get to where they are, it is possible to visualize from what they say where they have been and not been and to see the effects of the process that they have gone through. SCT trading is the result for me. And the transference of what this represents and its utility is a concern that I address most of the time. The distaff side of ET, is a real learning ground for me in terms of impediments to transference. I consider the iceman1 comments carefully for example. It is not just "shoot the messenger" stuff. I regard your baiting as run of the mill stuff that is roughly everpresent in forums. What I focus on mostly, regarding transference) is why people cannot see that learning to trade is a process rather that the list you and other state as a litany. The term process refers to the rational sequence of gathering knowledge skills and experience to fill up the whole systemmic picture. By knowing to "process" with minimum risk, you get to have wealth much sooner. Crossing the line of never having the possibility of losing money is a major milestone. To sit in a position where it is not possible in your life to lose money is a basic and strong reference point by any terms you want to use. The market offers money. The trader takes that money ever more effectively and efficiently. It is a simple system of the market and the trader. Rules apply as stated under market operating rules. Data flows and is handled by monitoring, analysis, decision making and timely action. The mind is the key. You fill it up with truths and become skillful enough to trade on sports memory. This thread focuses on improving trading skills. Improving trading skills can only be done when the mind is being filled up carefully with what is correct (true) about markets and yourself. Periodically it is required that an add and delete be done to be able to resume skills acquisition. The only thing is this. The mind does not have a delete function. It reorganizes instead so there is always a "haunting" factor. Your functions at this time are being right( entertained, etc.) and baiting (expensing others). There is little that you make available to yourself for much of anything you show us. I know what I post is helpful to others whether they like it or not. So I get shot a lot by others who have needs to shoot people. It is too expensive for them to deal with me otherwise. I have spent about 50 years thinking about how to improve my investing and trading from a wholistic systemmic viewpoint. Fotunately, I participate professionally in a lot of other things and I usually am writing a few books to doing design work and inventing things, concurrently. Jumping over candlesticks and using my slingshot. As you put it I am entertaining mostly. In grad school someone taught me that you make money by owning things and it is a lot faster than having a job where you get paid. From flat broke, it should never take anyone much longer than five years to have much more money than is ever needed if you view markets from a systemmic point of view. 4 out of 5 people regard this stuff as bullshit. Luckily for me I got to do it for real. Learning to be an expert is a process much like a "do it yourself" kit where you start with an empty box and your average teenage brains. The trick is self testing yourself to know how to know and getting it right.
Jack..... I don't know if you're just not reading my posts carefully or what. Yesterday, I thought AMZN would pull back and find support at 37.67. My prediction was off by two cents. It only pulled back to 37.69.
So make a mark where you see the support level over the last few days. 37.67??? LOL List all the cool entries and exits on this puppy. I added volume to make it easier.
EARTH TO JACK. EARTH TO JACK. You must be "LOL" about your ignorance, Jack. I made the call while it was on the way down. Not after the fact. I simply missed it by two cents! It turned around at 37.69. Believe me, Jack. I don't need your help. Just thought you might be encouraged to make a real call someday, instead of your usual drivel. You seem like you may have something to offer here, but your writings, IMO, are nonsense.
cool...I thought you were posting about making money...... What you did was make a prediction for some reason. Predicting per se has nothing to do with making money unless ......... you traded..I presume that you did and made money as the day progressed. This Am I presume you used the value to go short and then to reverse into another short a couple of times when the price came back up after you reversed on the support value shown on on the chart. your value just turned out to be the upper pivot for slaloming this AM and it was also the centering value for bracket set ups this pm. The BO was long over this centering value. Oh all that I posted is just a hindsight review of what happened to day. I don't do predictions, my focus is on holdng and reversing stuff. It allows a person to continually make money in the market. You may be doing the predicting entering and subsequent exiting thing. Or maybe yesterday you were predicting your exit point after an prior short entry. we won't know but that is the way it is. I missunderstood completely that comment you made about being "long"....you seemed connect support with going long.. I connect support with slaloming by holding and reversing as support is repeatedly tested until CCC occurs and a BO follows (who cares what direction whether it breaks through support or goes back into range trading). FWIW to others: drop predicting from your approach. It is not a worthwhile place to get stuck.
07-19-05 01:31 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Quote from BSAM: Well, uh, since I said support, believe that would indicate a long, Jack. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Somebody should elaborate on this Here is a brief elaboration on situations concerning support levels. In trading effectively a person regards trading ranges as important price areas. They are bounded by comtemporary Support and Resistance. To make money, a person monitors ends of ranges (Support or Resistance) for two purposes, primarily: 1. To see if the range is being tested, and 2. To understand that the range is solid and unchanging. I replied to the baiting with my second choice of response (A simple response by me). To make money under condition 1. you determine that this is, in fact, what is going on first. The simple test is to watch the next fastest fractal volume and dicsern that the rising gausian is on the falling price oscillation. (This means the SHORT is dominant and Support is being tested). That being the case you trade the trading fractal as a lateral channel going long and short alternatively by reversing in synch with the gausian. 2. To make money under condition 2. you determine if, in fact, this is what is the case. Trendlines already in place will tell you that it is. Then you use increasing volume on the bounce off the trend line on the trading fractal and simply watch the mini channel of the right to left traverse of the trend boundaries. You hold for the traverse or to the point that, on the faster fractal you get a reversal of the color of the halves of the gaussian volume. off support you are running black Red and a reversal would be red to red and gaussians resuming as red black. (This is a FTT in my jargon. (Failure to traverse) Naturally, the original poster, BSAM, sort of got a little sloppy and that was what the humor was in my original quip "long or short?" Support was not part of the scene or situation at all during the time he made the call. Price did not have anything to do with support at the time of the call nor the value of the call. It was a fcuk up to associate the price formation with support. So I was being humourous and there was a perception failure in ET. So what are the key points for those improving their skills. 1. You have to know where support is in truth. The multiday chart I posted second slips this into the picture. My intraday chart was more humor because it made the vlaue posted look like the top of the lateral channel where a person had to use the value as the pivot for going SHORT instead of ever using it to go long. The long reversal occurs on a Support price that is WAY below the value first posted. That is, a lower value where support really is found. 2. You trade on support one and only one way: You slalom using volume as the key indicator for the sequences of reversals. 3. All trading on Support and Resistance comes to an end because the necesary stronger volume required to BO of S or R never occurs when the S or R is being tested unsuccessfully. 4. when a lateral channel can not longer be slalomed you must sideline since noise predominates over any market signals. 4. All S and/or R BO's occur in a formation that follows the initial lateral channel that circumscribes the intial testing of S or R. 5. To avoid the trap of predicting the one of three possible events (none of which individually has a possitive chance of winning (1 in 3 is lousy)), you must always bracket the end of the formation that follows the initial lateral testing channel for entry purposes to come off the sidelines. Footnote: What was going on yesterday when the call was made?? Support was not in the picture. What was? A channel trend traverse was in the picture. How are channel traverses traded without predition? In this case the multi day channel extension of the trend line was there for price to traverse to (left to right). The time when the turn would happen was there to see graphically and hitting T to reverse ws an automatice predetermed event in time. The order would have been a market order of course and by looking at the print you find out the price. Who gives a fuck about the price; what is impotant is to see the trend line hit and the automatic bounce off of it and quite far away from a so called support value as later is presented to us the next day. The day ends with the routine parking of capital over night. Coincidentally, this was at a price that was the toher side of the multiday trend channel. Obviously I was looking for an annoted chart from the predictor to see if he was using channels to trade and ship the predicting bullshit. Not going to ever find that out. If anyone has amazon in their universe, do yourself a favor and dump it.
Very helpful post Jack - thanks. Whats the deal re: Amazon? Could not your understanding (that is, market truths re: price and volume and trendlines) be applied to any liquid security?
"I don't do predictions, my focus is on holdng and reversing stuff." Excuse me, but every position taken constitutes a prediction. Otherwise you wouldn't take it.