2000 was an anomaly, Prez-cycle year-wise. I was out until midyear, and then I bought only gold and gold-related stuff. The recovery was very old by then. The bubble was so blindingly zany only a fool or a newbie (of that vintage, of course) couldn't see what was coming. And the Fed was tightening, their last rise coming in the Spring of that year. Going into '08, by contrast, you have universal gloom and Chicken Little sentiment everywhere you look. The recovery is a bit old, at about seven years, but that still leaves anywhere from one to three years more, given past history since 1981. The Fed, meantime, is busy loosening. The two situations couldn't be more different.
The Fed began loosening January 2001, yet the S&P 500 dropped 40% from that time. And, for what it's worth, S&P 500 earnings are currently declining, but too early to know whether that's a blip or a trend.
Top voter selection: (global recession vs volatile markets) 23 to 17 27.71% (23 votes) There will be a global recession led by the US. 20.48% (17 votes) There will be no recession but the markets will see alot of volatility and sideways action.
...and everyone keeps citing that, and 1 out of every 5 chose economic Armaggedon in this survey. I'm very comfortable being a bull about next year.