Hi Folks general stoney check in and I feel these next 2 days hold the key to the future of the market! On the one hand we have a DOW that has been up something like seven days in a row should it turn up today and finish modestly higher BULLISH set up for sure. Also we are holding here in the face of IRAN actually PROCESSING some fuel or this suspicious " breakthrough " Russia is denying hearing the Iranians have made. Oil is at a precipice where it is about to FALL very hard. We are ENTERING earnings season tomorrow> psychologically then, it becomes a VERY important day. Fed minutes of course have to be released on such a day! so they will be read VERY closely. Should we get a good start to earnings season- Alcoa I presume and should the minutes indicate a propensity or willingness to lOWER rates in the near future and IF we finish slightly UP today... I know it's asking a lot but it's next LEG UP for us baby. Should we put a first down day in today and follow that up with a good-sized one tomorrow based off the Fed saying inflation stuff... well that'/s going to run into MASSIVE SELLING to pay for taxes. Something I'm doing today. So there is this sell element in the market to pay tax bills & we have recently sopped up liquidity with a bunch of crappy IPO's (at a year 2000 rate) The market is at a DANGER POINT!> we are about to have LESS THAN DOUBLE digit EARNINGS! and what's going to happen then?. >Well stoney is old enough to have played this game before... AND as perverse as it sounds ByLo, strangely, the market will RACE AHEAD into the slowing earnings... Sort of an Thelma & Louise Ending-- off the cliff> so we are at a VERY IMPORTANT TRANSITIONAL POINT RIGHT NOW. Monitor your cash position and don't be lazy. We are most likely primed here folks for A LIFTOFF I believe. ~stoney
Stone, I fully agree with you on that.I think even tomorrow after FOMC minutes we get a sell-off but not that big.I hope that sell-off will not be faded by bulls to get us back in this boring slow low-volatility bullish market.Also I feel a bit suspicious about so many people wanting a reverse,you know crowd is usually wrong.Maybe first we should see a nice sell off in Asia before we get that one in US as well.
For direction regarding the U.S markets watch the Japanese yen versus the USD. If USD gains against yen markets remain bullish. Just an opinion.
DOW up 7 days now, today can make it 8. Think the last time this happened was 2 years ago. 12300 was the last drop, up nearly 300 points in 8 days.
It'll be a good earning season, but the market works AHEAD not behind. The reason earnings season matters is because it's a prediction of the future. If we already expect the future will be lower, those stocks will move lower after earnings, regardless of current earnings. While I don't think the bull market is over yet, I am definitely playing things safer right now. Since 90% of the time, my instincts follow the market's and not the herd's, I'm ok with leaving a bit of $$ on the table to cover my ass til my antsy feeling goes away. Anyway, I just made 50% overall this last month . I can sit in money market's for the rest of the year and still beat the S&P by 40% (assuming the S&P doesn't tank by the end of the year). I'm just getting very very picky about my stock selections.
lol So why not follow your instincts and buy/sell/short since there is a 90% chance the markets will react accordingly?
Now that the Semiconductor HLDRs (AMEX: SMH) has held its 200 DMA (at the end of March) and has hurdled its 50 DMA at 34.21 today, in the aftermath of a messy sideways pattern from the October high at 35.95 to the October low at 33.15, it is time to enter a long position::: a new upleg that takes out 36.00 is upon us friends! The fact that SMH components TXN, AMAT, INTC, ADL and KLAC all have very promising chart patterns despite a lot of neg news about them> suggests strongly that the SMH should participate in a very strong advance.