I was just thinking. Let's say a (liquid) stock is trading at $100 per share. That means that the average opinion right now is that the stock should be worth $100. But you don't know anything else about people's opinions. It could be that 50% think it should be trading at $90 and only 10% think it's worth $110. Or the other way round. You can get an indication of these figures by looking at how the stock spikes, especially intra-day, or you could try to poll people. Has anyone done research in this field? How can you get accurate data as to what side would be the surprise side and by how much? How can you apply such data?