Implied chance of Jan Fed rate cut "as low as 82% after CPI data"

ok so
95.8200 fed funds jan 08
95.275 Eurodollar jan 08

thats 4.18 which is close to the 4.25 target rate for most of jan until the fomc decision jan 29/30. but even with a rate cut of another 25 bps for the last 2-3 days of jan i dont get to that number
a for the eurodollar, i have no idea why it is where it is. dont even know where to start about that one

 

lets see them reduce the rates now, they know reducing rates any further will only create higher inflation, they are now stuck.

 

Its a matter of opinion not an empirical data.

I can say chances are 60% for a cut in Jan 2008

 

You can just look at a quote somewhere. Google fed funds futures and take the first news link you see...

 

does that mean noone has an idea why this is the case?
thats sad man

 

All you wanted to know Johnson.

Its an estimate. Not set in stone. Changes as you get closer to Fed days.

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2007/08/30/calculating-probabilities-of-fed-rate-moves-a-primer/

http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/page/0,3181,1525,00.html