IMO ...If Trump is impeached - The markets take a 2%+ hit.

Because OP doesn't know how politics and the market work.

 

I would like to understand his reasoning. I... like the other traders here... do not see the connection.

Everybody has something to give...even new traders.

ES

 

I'd say if the big players in the market thought impeachment and its outcome would be seriously negative they would be selling already. Or at the very least not buying.

Its probable he will be impeached but this is not likely to lead to conviction by the Senate. The market has such a relaxed view of the impeachment process that you must suspect they have reached one or two conclusions - absence of conviction will be seriously positive for the market, and possibly also that it will have seriously negative implications for the Democrats' attempts to prevent a Trump second term.

Maybe someone with the right knowledge can say - if Trump is impeached, is the Senate legally obliged to hear the case, or simply legally entitled to hear the case?

 

Yes but they will set the rules, as whom to call in to testify, etc. At the end there will be no change (in the mind of Rep Senators) and they won't impeach in the Senate.

 

2/3 of the Republican controlled Senate will not vote to remove him. There are better odds of an asteroid hitting the Earth today.

 

Sorry, do you mean Yes they MUST hear they case or Yes they CAN hear the case but don't have to?

 

They have to hear the case. I don't think they could just outright reject it like a court and throw it out.

Anyhow, fun times. Here is Trump's next tweet, now this would MOVE the market, if he rage quits:

"The abuse I have experienced is unpresidented in the history of the United States. I hereby announce my resignasion since there's only so much a man can take no matter how stable and genius he is. MAGA!!!"

 

Sounds like good value for the money.

 

Well, I'm just wondering if the House MUST pass the case to the Senate and if the Senate MUST hear it. And if the Senate MUST find either guilty or not guilty and not any other verdict.

It seems very possible the Democrats might wish to back away from this whole thing rather than face an outright defeat in the Senate, which could very probably strengthen Trump and/or the Republicans, and/or certain Democrat presidential nominees over certain others.

This is all uncharted waters and what happens could have impacts on market volatility.

 

This would be amazing. Except Pence would take over, right? I respect Pence but he is weird.