Commercials are wrong as often as the average retail trader. And a lot of that short position is hedging.
Isn't the reasons clearly stated : You attempted two reasons, I'll try a third: The IMF is irrelevant to the policy of central banks. So whether IMF remains or is dismantled does not matter. Better to take back their gold at US1000/oz rather then 10 years on at USD10,000/oz.
I think it's a classic case of 'sell the rumor, buy the news". Why? Because the IMF has declared it's intention to sell part of its gold reserves 18 months ago. If you look at the chart of gold, you will see that the current consolidation also started about 18 months ago. Pure coincidence? Maybe. Maybe not. What happened now is that the IMF finally made an official resolution to sell the gold. However, this is hardly a surprise. But the 'rumor' finally became 'news'. It will be interesting to see how price reacts next week.
i think i read yesterday an nfl team is building a new stadium for 13 billion - the same amount of gold being sold. on a world scale - it just seems like an inconsequential amount.
Indeed, the amount of $ this IMF gold is worth is so meaningless when viewed in perspective with what is going on elsewhere in the markets today one can come to no other conclusion then the fact that it is all fearmongering propaganda to scare retail gold bugs out of their position. 13 Billion $.... Give me a break. I know of countries smaller then Iceland that run deficits bigger than that today.
About: I think it may not be "rigorously" correct. The rise/fall in the gold price will not affect the "strength of the dollar" which conventionally mean the Dollar Index, about which of the central banks are in the worst of shape - Fed, BoE, BoJ, ECB. The vote currently goes to Fed. The rise of gold is about the smart money choosing between alternatives - equity, housing and properties, bonds, silver, gold, etc. Since 2001, gold was the winner. For the next 10 years, we have to do a slight reappraisal because of the seriousness of the financial and banking carnage of 2008. An IMF gold auction may just show as a dent in the gold chart.
Papa Roach................where is the dissenting opinion. I need to know why I should dump all my gold? And please do not send me to Prechter.
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2581324> http://www.kitco.com/ Down $2.60! The sky is falling! Whatever shall we do???