No problem, I wasn't suggesting that you may be counter-trading, or fighting the market, was just trying to point out that the market has a language all it's own and speaks in the way I described. There is no conspiracy out there or forces out to get you, you just need to trade what you see, the market points all this info out on a daily basis. Though, with all the crosscurrents in the market today, the trading environment has become trickier, it still helps to keep it simple, by watching and listening. Good luck to you. Good luck
Thanks very much for what I exatcly want to hear. There is no conspiracy, more people agreeing or disagreeing?
qdz, Well just imagine ( keyword - "imagine" ) that this is true. Whatcha gonna do about it? Let's say that there are all these big guys out to get all us little guys. Wouldn't it make sense to follow in the tracks of the big guys. Think about it.
THERE SEEMS TO BE ALOT OF AGREE THAT THE BEST THING TO DO IS FOLLOW THE TREND. I'D BE MORE THAN HAPPY TO FOLLOW THE TREND IF I KNEW THE BEST WAY TO DTERMINE IT BEFORE IT IS ABOUT TO CHANGE AGAIN WHAT IS THE BEST NEAR TERM TREND INDICATOR??? IT SEEMS THE DAYS BREAK DOWN INTO SOMETHING LIKE: 34% MORNING ONE WAY, AFTERNOON REVERSE 34% MORNING ONE WAY, MID-DAY CONGEST, AFTERNOON SAME WAY 23% ONE-WAY, REVERSE, REVERSE AGAIN 3% ONE THEN NOWHERE 3% NOWHERE ALL DAY 3% ONE WAY ALL DAY PROBLEM IS KNOWING WHICH ONE OF THESE SIX IS THE "ONE" TODAY??
I agree lately (last 2 weeks things have gotten trickier), but FWIW..you can determine this fairly easily by looking at the sectors. When: BKX SOX XBD MSH are outperf. the SPX as they did most days from 10/09/02 to 11/26/02...the days trend is likely up; when any of these groups are underperf. as on Fri. 12/13, the market is unlikely to be strong...(As evidenced by low tick close); usually defensive groups like HCX CMR and DGR are up..signs of mkt in retreat...heads up. Further, when the market pshyce shifts from offense to defense..it pays to watch how the sectors perform..for example..leading groups like SOX will be weak (FYI in the 8 week rally this complex went from 220 or so to 398; only to retreat to the 310 level; loss of "key" leadership (see also BKX XBD) will signal some real down trend days. It's during thse shifts in sentiment that most trader's get cut up, myself included. Key off these, and you can gain some real insight as to what the market is doing..if you can get this right half the time you'll be OK. Hope this helps you! PS. I would go into further detail, but had that 3RD bourbon! and now I'm tired...so I am going to bed. PM me if you want to talk more. Good night!
It is thinking about these questions that drives me crazy. Thanks. I'd rather not to think about it now, maybe tomorrow.
Thanks, both GD2KNO and The Caracal. Your observation, experience, and suggestions are invaluable and greatly appreciated.
To achieve profits in the market, you need to flow with it. It is a constant dance. The important thing is to go with it moment to moment. Predictions are useless. Follow and you will receive.
Enlightened by the the latest defeat today, my imagination turns into strong suspicion that the markets are greatly manipulated. The manipulators have all information and mechanisms they need to conduct the operation. Our chance, as traders, is no better than 50% and usually quite short than 50%. But this suspicion does not turn into further anxiety to me. My mind is clear and my heart is in peace. I take whatever the market/manipulators give me.
qdz...I fail to see why you believe this...MCD TGT BBY and WMT, have all guided lower...why not just pick a retail stock to pound? RLX is the most under-performing sector on the day, down 2.5% vs SPX down .5% and KSS which I trade, has dropped like a stone from the opening print of 60.85 to 59.10! I thought I pointed this out to you in an earlier post... that is an easy trade. This ain't rocket science. Just pay attention to what the market is telling you to do.