I'm so confused. At what point the recession thesis is wrong?

Correct but how is this tradable? Long? Certainly no Ponzi collapse imminent.

Not collapsing any time soon then. I think you're right in that the currency goes first - Dalio thinks the same. Sure USD use as reserve currency has gone down but there's no other currency even close to challenge it.

They can't because euro doesn't enjoy the reserve currency status that USD does. I mean they can but not anywhere to USA's extent.

 

I disagree. even people who got govt jobs - the salary dollars they get are just as valuable and spendable.

 

it's not either or. some of the best historically combine.

 

Probably the sanest comment so far. It's laughable you even mentioned spend cuts and tax raises though - so not happening

 

You can do both.

Thus, I could say the same to you...who gives a shit about a recession thesis (wrong or right)...do you want to make money or bullshit about economics?

With that said, I do not know if they "timed the rebound just right" considering they did not discuss any trade positions. They only asked questions.



wrbtrader

 

Not the same. the only reason I give a shit about recession is because it hits risk assets. you give a shit whether some strangers on the internet are biased towards trump.

 

If this topic was in the ummmmmm Trading section I wouldn't mention it.

But since it is the Economics section I did. Satisfied?

 

If we're being honest, there was a job report that had a HUGE revision downward not too long ago.

 

Its done annually, thru every admin. Still showed growth over time.

 

this. revisions are not a big deal to anyone except permabears who're banking on their paid newsletter subscribers selling doom.