have you dined out lately? have you noticed minimum 18% tips as mandatory line item? we have 80% of the gdp in service sector.
Your anecdotal data is anecdotal. If you want to base your trading on that gl. Even non-govt data sources show inflation is not currently an issue.
If CPI comes as expected next week, with 2.3% they can cut rates again by 50 bps, otherwise it makes no sense. This is what I am expecting too against the actual overall consensus on the street. They are still FAR ABOVE neutral rate, so even a third 50 bps rate cut on the following meeting is very possible (with that CPI tendency and unemployment rate tendency). There is still a long way to go to neutral rate. And that was the goal forecasted from the FED chief Powell himself.
neutral rate is that gdp growth rate, inflation and fed funds rate are the same range, that’s the answer to keep everyone happy.
Why are you guys still talking about a recession? It's well past 16 months since the first rate hike to the point they're now lowering rates. You do understand that recessions happen when interest rates increase not decrease right? Or to be specific rates are increased to quell spending and then rates are dropped to incentivize spending again.
I'm surprised that nobody has yet mentioned the huge spike in government jobs. This accounts for the good numbers. So not only did we have 15 years of essentially zero interest rates that was unprecedented, we will now also has the government picking up any slack in the jobs market. Sadly, this can keep the recession at bay, but at the same time, anything can pop this balloon. If $2T in deficits on only $4.5T in tax receipts isn't enough to show the clown show that is the economy, I really don't know what will. But I have no doubt that it will all collapse, its just that they keep manipulating things in ways we never thought possible. And if Harris gets into office, the mere mention of recession will be deemed hate speech and you will be arrested, so even that will keep the ponzi going longer.