HI, Been reading this thread and wanted to give my results in my quest to learn to trade. I have been trying to learn to day trade now for about year and half. I started out with $7000 with one of the props sub accounts through genesis 10 times margin. lost all that in 1 year. Moved my account to another prop where I got a much better deal now, but as with anything when starting out didn't know where to go. If you can keep your losses small and hold out though the learning phase you will make it, and it won't take that long to make the money back. 3 things you should do is come up with a system you like. Lots of books out there even free sites like stockcharts.com have good information. All of these systems work with good money management. There isn't any secret system out there. Because I have seen so many make money with different systems. The reason they make money is they keep losses low by stopping out when things go wrong, and only take trades with good Risk to reward. What ever indicator, candle stick, MA crossover, or coin flip that you want to trade with if you can measure risk to reward it will work. I am starting now to turn the corner. All of my losses were do to 3 things. Taking trades with too much risk(chasing) , not following rules (letting my stop go). and no plan in place before I took the trade. Keeping a log of what I did was a big help it will show your errors. If you are struggling with trading PM me I will look over your log and see If I can see what your doing wrong. Many times it takes someone else to just see what your doing wrong and point it out.
... and most importantly of all elite, DO NOT SPEND ALL OF YOUR TIME ON TRADING BOARDS ON THE INTERNET! Doing so could hold your real progress back by years ... Regards, JJ
Obervation and Logic. Then how can you claim "I'm sorry but trading is almost 100% skill"? No, I'm sorry. You don't know. Not for certain. Few traders really have sufficient basis for even thinking so, though I understand it helps pyschologically. Plenty of evidence - most of which traders ignore - suggests markets are at least partly, if not even completely, random (certainly they are highly unpredictable). Give this, no one can be certain that his results are due to his skill/knowledge and not simple luck.
That is all quite different to there being a 'corner' to turn in achieving profitability. Because that suggests that once a profitable trader always a profitable trader. In reality, there is no such thing. Plenty of previously 'profitable' traders (who, presumably, had turned the corner) have gone on to crap out.
No offense intended whatsoever, but you seem to have a pretty cynical philosophy about trading, which WILL impact your bottom line. It almost seems as if you are trying to convince yourself to not pursue it.
It's not about cynicism or optimism. It's about reality. Unless you can offer a perspective that refutes what I've said then you're essentially choosing to ignore reality. The wisdom of that is questionable.
There's nothing surprising about that. At any given time, plenty of traders will be experiencing a stretch of good fortune (including traders with actual skills).
O.k. I'll bite. First, I'd like to say that I honestly find it amazing what rubbish is posted in this forum on the difficulties of trading. Particularly since most of those posting it have not turned the corner to being consistantly profitable themselves. Becoming consistantly profitable is primarily about skill, not luck if you have a systemized methodology. Here's why: 1. If you follow a systemized methodology and have calculated its successes and failures in the past, and presuming that you've done enough comprehensive testing (weeding out systems that deliver errant local optima) to determine that it is a robust system then you can have a statistically reasonable chance that it will continue to perform in said fashion in the future. Given this knowledge you can calculate your expectancy (ala Van Tharp). Given that you have a system with positive expectancy then your "skill" is the primary force of your success and not "luck". 2. If you have no systemized methodology or have not verified the above then it is debateable if your success or failure in trading is indeed luck. The mysterious "key" to success that Jelly Jam keeps refering to is simply this: The outcome of the next trade is indeterminate (i.e. luck), however, with a systemized methodology the outcome of the sum of the next 100 trades is 97% skill (luck of course plays a small role in any endeavor). For the original poster (if you're still listening) here is my advice. Keep your day job until you've done at least 1000-2000 hours worth of testing (funny that no one mentions that in this forum - perhaps that's why they have trouble trading). If you've done that and you've developed some systems that are robust and have a positive expectancy then start trading them on paper. Spend at least another 500-1000 hours on this. Then start with a small account and trade small (assuming that your systems are designed to perform in this fashion). Do this again for 500-1000 hours. If you find that you cannot do the above then I would say trading is not for you (you don't "love it" enough). If you do the above you will either be successful or will have quit long before you complete the above. Now get off this message board and start testing
Well, cynicism often disguises itself as a rational assessment of reality. There are too many people who make money day after day and their account equity does not have within a random distribution pattern. That is all the proof needed right there. Just because something does not appear to a person does not mean it does not exist.