Hi Johnny, still following along here, looking at a 60 minute chart at 'bout 5:30 pacific standard time here tonight (May 6th) and seeing some support coming together, dude you have pulled down one of the best timings on a trade that I have seen in a while....what do you think of taking profits and selling at a higher price from here ??? I don't want to make you second guess your trading plan, but I for one have let many a fine profit go down the drain and would hate to see you go down kicking your own ass with out a fight, Granted if you are in a contract far enough out to let you ride the thing out then do it.....what goes up must come down.... sooner or later !!!
Myanmar cyclone stirs more rice supply fears Mon May 5, 2008 9:39pm IST By Grant McCool BANGKOK (Reuters) - The cyclone and flooding in Myanmar's two major rice growing areas have "potentially serious effects" for food supply in two other impoverished countries, a U.N. official said on Monday. World Food Programme spokesman Paul Risley said it was not yet known whether Myanmar could meet its commitments to supply tens of thousands of tonnes of rice to Sri Lanka and neighbouring Bangladesh. He said it was too early yet to assess the damage to crops in the main rice-producing regions. "These are longer term questions and a major issue of concern because of the potentially serious effects for food supply in those countries at a time when global supplies are short," he said. In the former Myanmar capital Yangon, an official said the planned shipment of 50,000 tonnes of milled rice to Sri Lanka in May may be delayed as the government needs to check its stocks. "We are still carrying out a damage survey of our rice stocks and will make an appropriate decision after that," said an official at the Union of Myanmar Federation of Commerce and Industry, who declined to be identified. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Unbelievable. Rice is limit up right now in the night session so I shorted another contract at 21.595. The top limit is 21.600 for tonight and tomorrow's day session. If the price stays around limit up all day I will cover with a smaller profit, anywhere between 5k and 10K depending on the price action. I got greedy and went for the big money and I am paying for my sin. I think this news story is bull shit hype, but it does not matter what I think if the price does not agree with me. I will not let this trade turn into a loss..... I will not let this trade turn into a loss..... I will not let this trade turn into a loss.....
I'm getting raped right now. Trade is now under water, second day locked limit up. I have limit order sitting at the limit high 22.350. If it goes limit up again tomorrow night I'm in big fuckin trouble. Trading Gods: I promise if you let me out of this without any more damage I will never over leverage myself again!!
I wish ya luck, buddy. I was in your situation late last month --- do I let my nice profit on 4 contracts ride or do I take my money out? I took my money out and despite its continued fall, I'm not looking a gift horse in the mouth on this one. I learned the hard way on index futs to never get greedy when you score a surprisingly big win very quickly. Here's hoping you get through this okay!
I put a limit order to cover my 6 contracts at 22.350 at the limit up and was able to cover 5. I feel very relieved to be out of this situation losing mostly my profits from the trade. There are still around 100 buyers behind me trying to get filled. I might buy the september to offset the last contract if it cant get filled. Phewww.
Limit up again Tonight. This thing is going to the moon on new highs. I was thinking about you today. You are so lucky to get out.
Right On Johnny!! been wondering how this would go... Thanks for posting the whole thing, talk about reality shows... DAMN ! Hardest thing to learn in this stuff for me is to take the money n run,, 'Suck it up at the bounce'...there is always a point in a move like this that momentum slows for a couple days to catch its breath Usually after 3 or 4 days of hysteria, then a bounce, most likely a solid 50%-70% pullback. A break on the third day often times is enough confirmation of the direction ,be it a reversal or continuation. 'Best of trades'....... b-
I'm glad to see you got out of most of your position - a lot of people in your situation would have frozen up and prayed for a rebound, or even doubled up. I think your main problem on this trade was just trading too much size. If you had stuck to your original 2 lot then you would not have been badly hurt and would have ended with a nice profit on the trade. Pyramiding should go like this: 3 lots, 2 lots added, 1 lot added for a total of six, most added early on. You generally shouldn't be going from 2 to 6 *after* the market has already made a big move. Your decision to short 1 lot *after* the news was boneheaded, you might as well have set fire to $100 bills. Also your reaction to the news was it was "bullsh*t hype". That's not an objective reaction, it's an attempt to rationalise a position. Apart from that, I think you traded very well on your entry, and you did eventually cut your losses. Just chalk it up to experience, and in future don't over-leverage and don't add to losing shorts on a limit-up market after a natural disaster!
I completely agree. A very stupid move on my part among many. So I offset my last contract buying the September expiration. It appears the Burma Cyclone is total game changer in terms of the rice market. It took a market situation where panic and fear were leaving the market and brought it right back. Prices could shoot back up to the old highs if rice importers begin to scramble instead of holding off purchases like they were before.