It made me smile how loaded you are with completely irrelevant statistics and observations to try to make your point: 1) If you really trade "in and out of the market since teh 80s" then you obviously have made the same stupid mistakes for now almost 30 (LONG) years. Otherwise why did you trade "in and out of the market"? 2) Why this time is different? Well why was 2008 and 2009 different? I dont know but it was. Cycles and crises always have different durations, thats for one. So many correlations and past observations have broken down last year its even hard to keep count. You seem to really not have learned any lesson, which is that the market can do ANYTHING. You sound like you are so married to your view that you would stubbornly reject to go long AAPL even if it broke any sort of resistance level. I think what I feel the most sorry for you is point 2. You would still search for the next 2 years for short entry points even if we went for an extreme bull run over the subsequent 2 years. It what makes a losing trader, to be attached to a belief and to stubbornly defend it. Well you dont yet defend it yet, worse, you look into your crystal ball and try to predict something even the smartest of the smartest are unable to predict (and you really dontn sound like one of the smartest). Despite my criticism, I hope you take some of the points home and over-think your views. Merry Christmas
I dont think too complex when it comes to the market. Each year around this time when everyone is happy and pumping the usual tech stocks, they become a sell. It may not be right now, but it will be soon within the next few weeks. When I have been long in December and January and held then I was almost sorry when it came the spring or summer and watched how the indexes plummetted. Each year the same things happen and they have been happening like this forever. You can sit there and write long essays with your bullshit. However, the bullshit won't resolve what is about to happen within the next 30 days which will be a trend change that will most likely be resolved in March or April. For Apple, I figure it will either come after Christmas or in mid-January or right before the MacWorld conference in February.
lol, yeah each year the same thing happens, the markets go up and down. You actually did not say anything else than that. Of course will the time come when market correct. The whole point of the discussion is by how much and to what side the market is currently biased towards. If you dont start to think in terms of probabilities you will actually trade for another 30 years "in and out of market". As previous posters mentioned there are around 50 other highly liquid tech names that would make for better shorts than AAPL (if you really must short, maybe you run a short-only fund, whatever). You seem to be the guy who wants to short into a rising market and then not just any stock or the index but the stock that outperformed the market. Risking this comes down to trend following vs range trading, there is a reason a stock is outperforming others, and there is a reason this stock corrects and moves back to the crowd, money taken off the table FOR SURE is not any of the reasons this may happen. Intraday maybe but not in the daily or longer term time frame. It is simply stupid to bet against a longer prevailing trend. Any reason you believe the trend is gonna change? The end of some MacWorld? LOL So, ok as you insist on looking into your crystal ball, tell us by how much AAPL will correct and the time frame by which you believe this will be accomplished. You must be a fool to believe the market is in the same state as last year or the year prior. If its not in the same state what makes you believe that the market should act in a similar fashion, other than you just want to believe it?
Is this any surprise to anyone? Gotta love it. Clearly this individual has some sort of disease which makes it difficult for him to identify trend. Soon this young person will learn what marketsurfer eventually learned. If you're playing anything other than swings of a few days, the trend is usually your friend.
i still have 75% of the GOOG shares i bought at 265 last fall. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2193361#post2193361 and have all of the APPL shares i bought last fall. made a few buys on appl giving me a cost basis of 102. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2558434&highlight=goog#post2558434 will they pullback? all stocks do at some point. will goog and aapl have some "bad news" at some point? all stocks do. however, as someone else posted, there are many other candidates that are easier to short. why short two of the strongest stocks out there? like i said in one of my prior posts, the only thng i wish i did differently was to buy more goog and appl at the time. but go ahead, and do whatever you want. i've had another great year and have decided I have more then enough cushion in goog and aapl to hold for the very long-term. no plans to sell shares for a very, very long time....even with a broad market sell-off that may or may not come in 2010.
Ok, it looks like you typed lots of bullshit. I deal in facts. Why dont you look back at the last 20 years of Apple trading and tell me what has happened each year right around now to tech and Apple in general. I dont give a shit when you got your shares, we are talking about a shorting strategy for the stock right now. Save your bullshit for someone else. Everyone has made money during this upturn not only you.