I'm Short here....

For no good reason other than I believe most shorts have been squeezed out already. Clearly I am fighting the trend and I know it. I think we are going down big within the next few days. Just wanted to record my outlook so that if I'm wrong, I can look very foolish in public and punish myself for fighting the trend.

 

I do second the motion!

Momo

 

I think the decline will start next week. Still too many waiting to cheer the earnings this week. I think CNBC said yesterday that bullish sentiment is higher than it was in early 2000. Insider selling is also up quite a bit.

 

Hmmm ...... No good reason ?

...I see no good reason to take a position one way or the other here .... In fact with the fed meeting coming up I would tend to be on the long side of the market .....

You may end up just fine but I have only ever run into trouble when I took positions for "no good reason" ......

 

I will only point out here that if someone had bought SPY each time an ET member called the top in the past 90 days, they would be long ago retired. And if those who called the top actually shorted on each call - which I seriously doubt - they would be long ago broke. What does that say about the talents here?

There is nothing to say that this market can't continue in a technically "overbought" position for the next few months.

 

There will be a top, there will be a correction, but it might not happen for weeks or months. Why fight the trend when there's still good money to be made on the long side? When the reversal is confirmed then go short, not before. Trading 101, guys.

 

Ya, I figured that one out in september, I'm surprised everyone else didn't catch on back then

 

LOL... we should call it the Elite Trader Contrarian Indicator or ETCI (tm).

 

You're wrong. I've been calling tops the last 6 months, and I've shorted each time, and i've made money in the 3rd quarter of 2003, and the 4th quarter of 2003, and this month as well.

I was short each time, but not married to my short. That is-- i was able to see the market turning against me, and able to exit my short positions each time before any damage.

The trick to being short is knowing when you are wrong, and getting out quickly and nimbly.

 

If you're super-trader, riddle me this, wouldn't it have been easier to just be long the whole way up? I'm sure you would have made more money with less stress, am I wrong?