Just the other day everyone was saying how tech is working and then today RIMM comes out and announces an updated forecast for 4Q. Im surprised RIMM had that mini rally to the low 50's when it did, do not think for a second rimm is the best investment, remember at one time PALM, MOT and NOK were all considered great plays. RIMM might be the next in that group.
Well you have to remember that in good times, everything looks great and its tough to tell what are the best stocks. So you play what everybody else is playing and hope things work out. But now we have this economic stress test and the weaker players are sticking out like sore thumbs. When all sales are grinding to a standstill, RIMM with its "cant live without" product, has been bucking the trend and posting solid growth and profit. But that doesnt mean that performance percentages can't fluctuate a little. They are saying they are seeing a slight fluctuation and people are dumping it like its an Auto stock. The volumes are just outragious and higher than most things except bank stocks. They said last Q they are doing great, so independant analysts all over said great, we are hiking your new targets in this economic downturn. I dont know but maybe the analysts are like the media and pumping up expectations to the breaking point. So now, today, they say they might be on the low end of those targets but its not like they are loosing money. So far, it appears people are really over reacting based on the dire headlines the media has been posting. I would suspect CNBCs Crammer, the oposite perspective from the news editors, is probably calling RIMMs CEO to get the real story from the horses mouth. So I suspect this is a pretty huge buying oportunity that will at least partly fill the gap in short order. But you never know. The next headline could read "Crammer caught in the back room cooking RIMMs books". Ooo, its rising. Just 12points to go to get back to 60. I dont know when it will get back up there, but I will simply trade my profits back up to happy levels. Then when we do get back to 60, I hope to be well beyond where I was.
I picked up some calls this morning after I sold my puts but I don't expect it to return to $60 soon. I would expect any rally to get resistance around the $56-$57 area when the gap fills.
Yea, your probably right. That selloff freaked out a lot of people from the volume that traded. People will drive it up some, but too skitish to let it run long. A buddy was telling me that RIMM probably released that statement on purpose to keep the price from running any higher. He was saying companies would rather the prices rise slow and steady. I don't know if thats legal as it smacks of price fixing or influencing to me. Anybody heard of such a thing? Anyhoo, I was pizzed today and only did one buyin and one trade. Had to go and refinance my house today as well. They locked in 4.85% for $300 closing costs. At least something is working out. We'll see how things settle out tomorrow but its still should be a great trader to make money with. Now to attend to my after market homework...
Ok, I got 2 stocks on my charts that are green. RIMM and SWKS. SWKS has been listed as one to watch and then later said things were shaping up to be more challenging than they originally guided. Stock took a hit and I quit watching it closely. Then last week they reported and surprisingly beat estimates. Stock gaped up like 30%. RIMM says sales are sigificantly up, revenue on target, and margin a little squeezed. But still sees profit within their guidance. We saw the resulting carnage. WS simply hates any hint of missing street expectations by so much as a penny. By contrast, NVDA, also one to watch just reported revenue off 60% and a loss 7c worse than street estimates. They say their business is just tanking and havent decided on a turn around plan yet. There were no big headlines in the media, so their stock gaped down 7% and trading flat today. Its a good company with plenty of cash so they will weather the storm. So there you go with a little comparison of how the media can really whip things up. Apple is the media darling especially now that Jobs has health issues with the sympathy play. RIMM is like the trespasser competitor so we can only expect to see the worse in the media, but the very best from Cramer in the opposite camp. Just a little food for thought as the herd slowely buys the stock back up.