Dude! I'm trader99. And I'm NOT TraderX64. I don't even know who he is. Geez. People get some creativity in here. If you look through the discussion thread, you'll noticed I'm the writer of mature, professional, institutional comments about the market, strategies, and whatever topic of the day maybe. None of this childish stuff that floats around a lot on this board. Good luck trading to all! Let's proceed on with something useful. Trader99
Trader99, Good to see u made it..seems u have a reputation that preceeded me... I agree.. lets proceed and good trading TraderX64
<b>How a trend starts:</b> Obviously you have to be able to spot a bottom as it is taking shape. The way that a bottom gives itself away is the INCREASE IN VOLATILITY IN QQQ'S. This is the "whipping" action that is seen in the QQQ's before a powerful up-day is displayed (usually with a gap up and early morning volatility, intraday). Let me clarify one thing=I am not saying that when you take a position in a bottom, that you are going to buy THE bottom (down to the very last cent). I am simply saying that a long postion will be taken using the volatility that the bottom displays. However volitile a bottom can be there exists only two variations of a bottom (in the QQQ's)...<i>We have to be clear on the term bottom- a bottom gives rise to an immediate rally into the 20,40 period moving averages <b>breaking</b> these averages and eventually going higher. That is a bottom, in my book.</i> The two variations of a bottom are: <center><font color=red>1. Lows and highs on candlestick charts push back to a FLATLINED 5MA. Stochastics at or below 20.</font></center> <p><center><b>OR</b></center> <center><font color=red>2. A test of previous four day close, sell-off into/below the 5MA, and a gap up above 5MA.</font></center> These are the only bottoms that the QQQ's can display. This is such, since the QQQ's are such a liquid instrument. So far this is what all bottoms look like and until it changes this is the method of choice for profitable traders.
There is NOT supposed to be a direct correlation between the nasdaq comp and the qqq's. One is a composite of 5000 or so stocks (not sure of the number, but it is huge), and one is the composite of 100 stocks. Of which a half dozen make up about a third of the weighted average. So when Intel or Microsoft or Dell have a dramatic move, the qqq's will move more on a percentage basis than the nasdaq comp. It is like trying to equate the s&p 500 to the Dow 30. Sometimes they move together, sometimes it isn't even remotely close. Know the significance of what you are watching if you are going to use the info to influence your decision making. (personally, i rarely seriously look at the nasdaq comp....i look at NDX, because the great majority of the nasdaq stocks I trade are NDX stocks, as is probably true with most traders).
Hey, I am not trying to win a popularity contest. If "super_ego" has something worthwhile to say, I respect him for sharing the info. I have no argument with his trading approach. I don't claim to be qualified to pass judgement on anyone's trading approach. I know I can only learn from others, if even only a little. Sometimes I can learn a lot. It never hurts to listen and be open to the ideas of anyone. If I don't learn anything, well I haven't lost anything either. (Except maybe some time...and I have enough to spare in the name of learning). My only real problem with SE is his approach. But I commend him for at least trying to share. I don't have to "like" the way he does it, and I don't. But so what? Doesn't bother me personally if he thinks I have a tiny little brain. Maybe he is right. Who knows? I just don't see how he can assume we ALL have tiny little brains except of course for him. I also can empathize with some of the traders here that want to learn and are struggling. Been through it myself. No rich daddy here! I don't know that emotionally kicking these guys when they are down is helpful....I do think that SE must get some kind of gratification out of it. So his style is distasteful to me. I am sure mine is distasteful to him. So what? If either of us can help anyone, and I believe we both have that intent in common, then we will have achieved something good. There is no one right way to do anything.....especially to teach or to trade. So to teach trading....well, I guess I can't say more. Except that this brings me to my main problem with SE's premise..which is that he knows the "WAY" to trade and no one else seems to. I know I don't, yet I somehow managed to be a successful trader for a long time. Maybe I am just lucky. Because I sure don't know of any one thing that works all the time. Maybe I will learn now from SE however.....I hope I do. It would make my life a lot easier.
Yes, this has been obvious for a while....Why he has to do it this way is anyones guess....but I guess it makes no real difference. Maybe Clark Kent needed to be Superman to get through HIS therapy too But Clark tried to keep it a secret...I don't think that faster even is trying to disquise being SE...I think he will readily admit it. If he is having fun being his own biggest fan...well everyone needs adulation I guess. I have a dog....does it for me