volpri, please notate where on the chart you combined the mescaline with black tar heroin. #OneHarshMellow Thanks. Your friend to the end, Dest
Here is another good example of managing the trade. I enter short on light blue arrow, set SL at red arrow, PT at green arrow. The uncertainty of the market does not care about my profit target. Market comes a tick within my PT and reverse. What do I do now? I wait a few minutes to see if more bears will enter the market. They don't. I wait to see if bears will sell the ema on a pull back. They don't. I bring my SL down some, and eventually exit for a -2tick loss after I see the bulls taking charge creating a small lower highs. Gotta change when the market changes.
I not sure about your entry on this one. Why did you enter short in the middle of a range? I trade this sort of PA differently. How do you think I would have traded this?
hello volpri, Yes, I agree with you. FYI, I am trading sim paper money, so this all good practice for me. On this trade, I got in late on this one, not paying attention. This one is my fault on bad entry. You would have entered at the purple arrow because price at top of range, and bear rejection bar with good follow through.
You might consider practicing this on a sim. When price is in a range 70% (some might even say 80% of any attempt by the bulls to break out of the top of the range fails. The bears push it back into the range and/or move it towards middle and lower part of the range. 70% to 80% of attempts by the bears to push price south out of the range fails and bulls push it back up and/or move it towards the middle or top of the range. That is pretty good odds. Here is a tactic to practice. It is counter intuitive but try it. ONLY ON A SIM NIT A REAL ACCOUNT. Divide the range into 4 equal pieces. When price trades up into the upper quadrant begin shorting. Add as it keeps going up shorting even more. Do this regardless of whether the bar is bullish or bearish or doji. When price reaches near the top it has a 70% to 80% chance it is going to reverse back down towards the middle and perhaps even the bottom of the range. Start exiting if price stalls around the middle of the range. As price moves towards the center, if is doing so on bear bars with gaps (close of present bar is lower than the low or the close) of the prev bar and/or the prev two bars, then you might consider holding on to some of the position for bigger gains. Now do the opposite when price is at the bottom 1/4. Start buying (regardless of bar.. bullish or bearish or doji) and adding (averaging down) as it trades further south (if it does) and start exiting on moves towards the center or upper quadrants locking in profits. Hang on to some of the position for bigger gains if move up is with successive bull bars with gaps (between the close of the present bar and the close or high of the previous bar or two bars also.) Basically, your signal to buy or sell is when price is in the upper or lower quadrant. And average in or down..LOL. Yes break the cardinal rule of 95% of the guru’s. The averaging down will render greater profit as price subsequently begins to trade towards the middle. This factor (averaging down) is KEY for making the tactic profitable. Warning #1 the range must be broad enough for a scalp. That means at least 3 times the size of a min scalp. In the ES I consider a scalp to be 1 point. So I would employ this tactic on ranges 3 points or taller. In fact in broader ranges you can get two legged moves towards the top or bottom and can thus hold some for larger profit. Warning #2 SL should be placed a points or two outside the range. Sometimes price will BO above the range a point or two before trading back into the range. That is normal. So, some traders might even want to use a 3 point above or below the range SL. That is up to the traders taste for risk. As price Breaks out of the range I am generally averaging down. Why? Chances are even in a an actual BO (as opposed to an attempt that reaches in the upper or lower quadrant)of the range top or bottom, that the actual BO will also fail and price will go back into the range within 3 or 4 bars and start trading towards the middle or further up or down (depending if your position is bullish or bearish ) into the range. This is a tactic to trade what traders call “chop”. It ain’t easy for a newbie (or even a somewhat seasoned trader ) as price can race up from the bottom of the range on successive bull bars ..even larger than average bull bars and all the newbie can think...is BO and big $$$ and so he/she is frantically buying right at the top of the range because of FOMO (fear of missing out). He should be selling not buying. When it races to the bottom he should be buying not selling. Newbies tend to do the opposite of what they should do. Warning #3 eventually there will be a BO from the range that will in fact succeed. So, if you get caught loaded up in a BO that has follow thru then exit immediately ..double up on your previous position size ..and go in the direction of the BO. Price will have to move less and you will be back at BE. Enlightenment concept: a sideways movement to be a range must have at least 10 bars (for a mini range) and 20 or more for a normal range. Anything less is probably just a flag ( bull or bear) and said flag can be in many shapes...triangles...pb’s..wedges...etc ad nauseam...Best not to use this tactic on your simulator in such cases. And NEVER on your real account. FINAL WARNING: THIS IS ONLY FOR TRADING ON SIMULATED ACCOUNTS NOT REAL ACCOUNTS! YOU CAN AND MAY WELL LOSE MONEY. IT IS NOT EASY TO EXECUTE. MISTAKES CAN AND WILL BE MADE. THIS POST IS NOT TRADING ADVICE BUT JUST FOR PLAYING AROUND ON A SIMULATOR. I CANNOT HELP WHAT YOU DO WITH YOUR REAL MONEY BUT THIS POST IS FOR EDUCATION ONLY!! WARNING ..WARNING ..FUTURES ARE DANGEROUS. STOCKS TOO. ANY TRADING IS. EVEN TRADING DOLLARS FOR A USED CAR OR A NEW CAR. Good day. Your chart below marked up. A waste of time according to poster laissez faire if I understood him correctly. You may wish to make haste and heed his thinking on markup charts.. PS use sim charts in all the tactics! ROFLMAO
Thanks volpri, no worries on the Final Warning part. I lost about $6000 trying to day trade futures without practicing and verifying for consistent profitability first. I certainly know better now. I know better now for sure. I am not quite ready for live trading yet. I will know when I am ready. All of our discussions is for trading discussions opinions ONLY, NOT to go trade live money without MANY trades on simulator to prove money can be made. I definitely understand!!! and agree!!
Here is one challenge I have lately. That is managing a trade when winning. I want to get better at trailing at winner, rather than exiting to early at fixed micro/dynamic support and resistance levels. I wake up and enter the trend on a pullback. I was a bit anxious to get a winner and exited early in concern of price pulling back to my entry. I make +8 ticks on this, $80. One contract. What is your opinion or suggestions on managing this trade til PT? orange arrow = PT light blue arrow = entry red arrow = SL Purple = exit If i can repeat the trade, i would move my SL below the breakout black level, after that first bear bar. Thanks,
Well simplemelike again I wouldn’t have bot where you did so it is a bit difficult to say. But considering how you managed the trade it was fine and I think you did right by your exit because the odds favored it going back into the range right where you exited. Now, how would I have trade this? To the left if you start counting the bars once they break up and through your bottom horizontal line to your entry bar there are 20 bars. Price goes up..then down...then up..then down..and heading back up when you entered. This is a range (remember 10 to 20 bars) and this is range behavior. I would not have entered long in the middle of the range. Since on your entry bar price was headed back up I would have been waiting to short. I would have started shorting on that larger bull bar after your entry as it reach the top of the range (your top black line). I would have kept adding (averaging down more shorting as it continued up. When it got close to your orange arrow I would have had my full position on and at that point done one of two things. 1) Wait for price to drop back into the range and unload by scaling out as it dropped towards the middle or since I could see it slicing back down through the range like soft butter I would have held the entire position to the bottom of the range making a decent profit. 2) If price went up more after after reaching your orange arrow I would dump the entire position double up on the position size and go long. In 1/2 the distance up I would have my loss back (at BE) and since the trend overall has been a strong bull trend since around 5:00 (see time at the bottom) I would just rack the 20 chart sideways move as simply a bull flag and hang onto my double up position for a measured move up starting that measurement from the bottom of the range flag. If that panned out I would easily recoup my loss and make a handsome gain. As it turned out it traded back into the range so #1 would have worked really well. I am just telling you what I would be looking for and how I would have been looking to trade this if I were doing it. Of course, it is all hindsight but hindsight can be useful for teaching concepts. The hard part, of course, is in the application when trading live with money, as all the psychological factors get unhinged upon a persons mental capacity.