A note on today's closing TRIN (3/9/2004) "On a few trivial notes, the TRIN came close to closing above 3.0, which it's only done 11 other times since 1997. Three days later, the SP500 was higher all 11 times, with an average gain of +2.5%" http://www.hardrightedge.com/tradewinds.htm
Right, we're nearing that prior swing low on the daily and if that fails to hold.. then the entire complexion of the bull market is in jeopardy. This area should make a stand out of respect of the past 2 years or die trying.
I respectfully think you are wrong. This will not be a time to "buy the dip". The market is on the verge of a correction.
That is a great post and something certainly of value. Keep up the good work, we need more posts like that on ET!
However, historically the S&P has shown some strength after these pullback levels. Typically when the S&P pulls back to a 10 period Raw K level of 15 on a daily stochastic, it will follow up with a rally. Personally, I use this level to heavy-up on good stocks that are also pulling back.
The NAZ has already been correcting in both "price AND time" for roughly 7.5% and seven weeks. The second quarter of the year is always the weakest for the semi-conductor industry. Thus, the pullback in the chip stocks. Once the market starts to look further out, chip stocks wil undoubtedly rally out of their current oversold condition. Meanwhile, the S&P has done nothing other than pull back from some strong resistance at 1158. With the 10-Year TBond trading at 3.72%, it's pretty hard to see money leaving equities, unless you are making a bet that the economy is heading back into a recession.
Why ask anyone else opinions? We wouldnt help you if you were wrong and most will be relieved they are not in your situation if it goes wrong. If you need friends buy a dog.
If we all thought now was a buy (which i think it is NOT), that mkt would surely go lower. You should know this already, the penny scalpers rarely win.