I'm going to babble for a few minutes about wheat...WEAT

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by Cabin1111, Mar 30, 2024.

  1. Cabin1111

    Cabin1111

    I have NEVER said I am an expert trader!! I do have decades under my belt.

    The last time I checked, about 7% of all options were covered calls. Not a big portion by any means...But, it can not be totally ignored.

    I am more of the boring investor who looks for under valued stocks/ETFs, then buys them. Maybe an industry leader that had a bad quarter (think DuPont).

    I would say about 20% of my stocks (ETFs) are optioned. The others just sit and (hopefully) grow...Think QQQ.

    I use to post on the options page...But now, I just use my journal page for most of my thoughts and trades.

    With WEAT, I wanted to get a dialog started, to try and see all sides of the issue (trade).
     
    Last edited: Mar 31, 2024
    #21     Mar 31, 2024
    ironchef likes this.
  2. ironchef

    ironchef

    Don't sell yourself short. Be able to consistently make money doing covered call/CSP is not easy.

    I gave up on them early on because I couldn't beat buy and hold writing covered calls or CSP.
     
    #22     Mar 31, 2024
  3. long

    long

    #23     Apr 3, 2024
  4. brian304

    brian304

    I’ve done quite a bit of research on this using data to the 1960s. Holding TBills is a better option than holding a commodity or commodity type index. But a nice an option is to take one of the commodity indexes and use any medium or long term momentum signal. When it’s bullish buy the index etf/fund otherwise TBills.

    This summary is from portfoliovisualer.com
    12 month dual momentum model since WEAT inception using DBC:
    Portfolio Initial Balance Final Balance CAGR
    Dual Momentum Model $10,000 $13,506 2.42%
    Equal Weight Portfolio $10,000 $10,018 0.01% << holding DBC
    Teucrium Wheat ETF $10,000 $2,405 -10.71%
    There were 21 trades in the period.

    DM outperforms a moving average model in this period.
    HTH
    Brian
     
    #24     Apr 7, 2024