Actually, my HolyGrail ATS is 95% based upon sentiment measures! http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=155838&perpage=6&pagenumber=6
Keep the faith, ElCubano...you will be rewarded. btw, the close for Thursday was just 1.0% higher than the low on Monday! (spy basis)
Regardless of holygrail or a random dart. The call was good, right at the bottom on 3/5. So pat yourself on the back. Just waiting for the fall. Not sure how high it will go, but i am moving my straddle along with it since 750, taking profit off the table as it moves away from atm. 850 and 875 on the sp500 are definite bumps. happy times...
You will know the answer by the fifth one. Statistically speaking, by the Fisherian convention adopted throughout science, the fifth consecutive correct call will not be consistent with the 'random dart' model (i.e. with the null hypothesis of no predictive power, using the standard 5% significance level)... just make sure that an opposite call has not been made by the same forecaster somewhere else, e.g. under one of the 31 other nicks (I suppose this good old trick is still legal outside of the brokerage world...
It is not possible to determine whether or not it was a good call until it can be deemed a profitable call. That is once a sell signal is issued to close the long. If we go back down and hit new lows and no sell signal is issued is it then still a good call? No. I await the Holy Grail ATS sell signal.
Hello...can we keep discussing the SSO versus trading results or money made? I think the inverse SPY is probably worth a look right about now. What do you think?