I think there is a high chance of a temporary capitulation bounce, but I suspect the bottom will be 2002-2003 lows which is about 20% down on the spx. Remember, Buffet is in the red on almost all of his recent buys. http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=Warren+Buffett&action=buy
That's assuming you can actually RELY on those book or net asset values or forward earnings! Get it ? DUH!
We have yet to capitulate. We have yet to just "throw in the towel". We could be close. All the Rich Guys, Private Business owners, I know, sold out of the Markets 6 months ago to a year ago, if they sold =at all. Any onw who just sold now, is a fool. They held it all they way down from 14000. Now they are selling? Idiots, unless they had a margin call. If they are truly "Rich", they wouldn't give a rats ass because they were probabaly in the Markets well before the 99 bull, they road the 911 turbulance and the run to 14000 plus K. The ones bailing are the 9 to 5rs, JOE SIXPACK, and MISSY Desperate House Wife. The Middle Class 401ks.
Hey mommie and all investors in my fund... I am going long because "the average bear market is down about 30%"!!
Why not look at the 52 week high list and choose accordingly? Isnt conventional advice to buy the stocks that are making new highs?
imho, a sharp rally. pres, election, yr ends in 08, mathematically due for a retrace, only, as a near term trend within a long term bear
Up we go! Dow 9,983.00 19.00 0.19 S&P 500 1,056.90 3.60 0.34 NASDAQ 1,418.50 12.00 0.85 May not seem like much now but European markets and hong kong markets tend to rally when the gap lower.
i've been bearish for the last 18 months and sitting on 85% cash for my long-term accounts (401k, ira), but it's now time to start going long for those accounts. when kramer the klown tells everyone to sell, you know it's the time to buy. he's always behind the market. everyone is in a total panic now, which is the best time to pick up some bargains. dollar-cost average into long positions