I'm going long here

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Cutten, Oct 6, 2008.

  1. Cutten


    Nikkei <10,000, down more than 40% in 18 months.
    Russia & Brazil down 60-75% in a few months
    Commodities and commodity stocks annihilated
    VIX at 2001-2002 peak levels
    S&P off 37% in one year earlier today, coming down pretty much to my 1000 target level from earlier this year
    Buffett buying big
    Fear rampant
    The Pope, Church of England, Jim Cramer, and random Italian policemen turning bearish
    People I know who are stock amateurs have freaked out and sold everything.

    To me this looks like a great buying opportunity. I'm 80% long and will be 100% long by the end of tomorrow. I also think we could see a short-term rally tomorrow/wednesday, so I'll step up to 150-200% long intraday if I get a nice signal for a rally. But going 75%+ long here as a position trade/investment looks really sound.
  2. Well, the one thing you can say for sure is you are not buying the top.
  3. I like your passion and sentiment, and see where you're going, but the risk now is a cascade of paranoid consumers creating dramatically increased savings, slowing spending and shattered earnings' growth.

    The psychology of the world is all wrong if one is looking for the bottom here.
  4. An average bear market is 30%, and we're beyond that. Good time 2 go long.
  5. From 1:32 to 1:45 today, I bought EEM, RSX, EWZ, EWA, EWC, EWS, EWH, EWJ, FXI.

    Looking for a massive oversold rally over the next two weeks (mostly aided by worldwide coordinated Central Bank action).
  6. I don't think Cutten is looking for "THE" bottom, but rather a large oversold/capitulation bounce.
  7. I'll "draw a line in the sand" behind yours. :cool:
  8. Cutten


    I think we could be at *the* ultimate bottom too, but I'm not betting 100% on that. But yeah, i reckon we see a big bounce. If we hit 1150-1200, I can then look at the market and decide is it acting like a bull market now (e.g. climbing a wall of worry, stocks rallying in the face of bad news, higher lows and higher highs), or just like another bear market rally (e.g. complacency returns, stocks top out and turn back lower again).

    Nikkei just dipped a bit below 10,000, a key psychological level, then turned higher 10220 now. I have to say I like the Nikkei even more than the S&P here - their financial system is far less leveraged, more sound, more conservative, so the true meltdown risk is far lower.
  9. I took it as an incredibly bullish sign today when a very rich man I know told this:

    "I got up this morning and entered sell orders for everything I had."

    He sounded so relieved. "The markets are diving, and I'm bailing."

    The most amazing this is how long he stuck with it, losing millions.

    And then he tells me that he has two friends doing the same thing today. And these guys are not professional investors. They're businessmen who have made a lot of money in other areas - only to have much of it wiped away the past year in the stock market.

    I believe we are finally at bottom. The economy may have some hell left in it, but the markets have discounted this hell and then some.

    I'm looking around at companies I never thought would be bargains like they are today, and I am finding the prospect of being a buyer in this type of market so exhilarating.
  10. My buy list today and tomorrow:

    BAC (tomorrow)
    #10     Oct 6, 2008