I'm considering going long on April wheat

Since wheat has dropped off so far, if you just trade the spreads you might miss out on a HOME RUN. Some of the HRW wheat areas are in good shape but others are too far gone. Look at market action in the corn in the KC wheat markets lately. Why is the market going up after a VERY bearish report yesterday if there are not any issues? Isn't it nice of the USDA to put out a bearish report, now traders will be more inclined to go short because the USDA is always right. WRONG!

 

Slinging contracts around like a cowboy will lead to trouble my man. Trade the spreads and if its not enough bang for you then trade 100 lots in the spread at a time. Always take the consistant higher probability money vs the long shots. I like selling mw/kc around 45 mw/chi around 95 and kc/chi around 55

ADM has been stopping practically all of the HRW deliveries so I also like bullspreading k/n kc

just my opinions though

YT

 

Yeah I was thinking of just buying some wheat too since the dollar is so high. Maybe better to do the spreads though. Where can I find out info spreading and what is adm?

 

ADM is Archer Daniels Midland, house 905, big player in the grains.

YT are you in the grain room or from the grain room?

 

No I have never worked on the floor although I have a few friends that are currently in the grain pits and many that used to work down there back in the heyday. I am with a proprietary trading company in Chicago.

 

I noticed these ag Future didn't go up as much as oil, maybe pick up some May corn at 380s, zw 530s.

 

I think Billy Ray Valentine is advising the Director of the Exchange not to invest in Wheat stock because he anticipates a better than expected yield in Russia causing prices to go down (number 1). Number 2 is inaudible. But number 3, I think by looking at (scarcity) of jewellery on his girlfriends neck, to invest long in gold instead. What do you think? #tradingplaces

 

The timing of this post is March 2009. The bottom, depths of the financial crisis.

Talk about perfect market timing...on when deciding to go long.

Sure it's crystal clear in hindsight...but you can kind of apply this same principle to any time frame market. That little initial hint of a turn is all you need, along with a certain degree of rational logical reasoning behind it to strengthen and justify your conviction,

 

Thanks