>>Quit trying to explain it and follow the charts. The charts will work until they don't anymore. But since the market started it always eventually rewards growing companies that are being sold for cheap prices. Why would a growing company be selling for a cheap price? Because people are overly pessimistic, or following charts, or mutual funds are getting redemptions, etc. I short-term trade, but I do it by identifying mispriced stocks. Although its impossible to call a bottom I think it is worthwhile to understand the economy we are in and what ramifications it will have on the market. A bull market ultimately creates more opportunities than a bear market, both long and short. I look forward to the beginning of the next one.
I short-term trade, but with a bias. Right now it looks like the best risk/reward scenario is to have a bullish bias
In response to your post I would note that it was the mental suffering of Arjuna and the difficult political and family choices he had to make on the battlefield that prompted his charioteer, Krishna, to lecture him in what became the Bhavagad Gita. Questioning our choices with an open heart can only lead to good.
Vishnu, I applaud your intiation of this discussion. So far you have had some intelligent (I don't mean intellectual) responses but I'm afraid so many of them are the EXACT mirror image of the sentiments you would have provoked had you dicussed going short over the winter of 1999/2000. I too think we're nearing the end of the speculative excess on the downside. The orgiastic tone of the shorts is getting a little too uniform. ANYONE can make money shorting this market - the skill level required to make money has dropped to zilch just as it did at the top of the bull... Q1 (both short and long)
We are in a bubble again ("anti-bubble", just the opposite of the big runup 2 yrs ago). I'd like to see more "irrational exuberance" on the downside. We are close imo! When CNBC teaches the retail people about how to short stocks and profit during a decline - well, that says it all. (They should have looked at the weekly and monthly charts of the major indices 3 yrs ago instead!LOL) You should not be frustrated - just follow the charts and take your profits quickly. I am still hoping to get a big whooooosh day (Dow dropping 800 - 1000 pts intraday) - don't know if it will happen but it would certainly help. We'll see - out job is to observe and react. Good luck!
Vishnu, I think you are watching too much CNBC. The economy is in big trouble. CNBC is an infomercial. I'll say it again just for effect: THE ECONOMY IS IN TROUBLE.
I never watch CNBC. There is absolutely zero information one can get from that channel. briefing.com is not bad.
I am a CNBC fan! News seems to flow as 1. rumor 2. main news wires like dj and bloomberg 3. Secondary news services like briefing and yahoo 4. CNBC! So when I want to short the good news, the little pop that it gets from CNBC produces a good fill. Thank you, Bob Piss-on-it. He nailed the top on the tobacco news yesterday. These are just my observations. Please do not confuse me with someone who actually knows what they are doing.