What's the better pay off. Betting on what everyone is anticipating or on what no one believes can continue?
bet whatever you want - nobody's forcing you to do anything besides, by your logic, if you convince us, then by definition, it becomes the new wrong decision
As I said in your other thread, I wouldn't be surprised if you were right... but it's a bit early right now to calling it so definitively. They can still turn on the spigots any time they want, so if I see a lot of people getting bearish like they were in July, I'd be pretty careful. This is not a normal market, and normal rules do not apply. I definitely wouldn't be going long here right now though...
all of these 'the top is in' threads are becoming almost embarassing now, as the market proves each one wrong in turn, but i wish you all the best!!
as i said in another post, i think the easy guess is a drop to the 200 month moving avg at spx 1019 to test support, from there it';s anyone's guess after that it could ping pong between the 200 and the now lower 20 month (about 1042) "but it's a bit early right now to calling it so definitively" I put forth the hypothesis 2 weeks ago, and now i'm calling it i'm just avoiding the wishy washy bullshit of covering the scerios of it not being correct as an alternate prediction, as elliot wavers are notrious for this prediction will be right or it will be wrong, in any case, nobody should risk going broke being stubborn believing it, i sure dont plan to
i dont think i've ever done one before i am at least, attempting to put forth a case with some analysis, be it right or wrong at a number of places there are extraordinary technical allignment
Fair enough. I actually like your chart/analysis, and if it was on something other than the ES (like an FX pair or a stock) id agree with you, but i treat the ES very different. Long only. Play WITH the government and not against them. Treated me well for a long time now. Its manipulated to always go up over time, and I use that bias in my ES trading.
I wouldn't be surprised to see a trading range for a while either... but not sure that I would qualify that as "the" top. You can't call a decline to 1019 "the" top. To me, "the" top would be a significant clawback of the gains we have seen since March 6th... you are predicting nothing more than a 12% retracement of that move from 666 to 1075. That is not "the" top, it is just a retracement, if it happens... and be aware that IF it happens, it could be a setup for a massive squeeze above 1100 if everyone gets bearish. I wouldn't be surprised to see the decline continue from here, but let's get our terminology right. As it stands, I still think it's too early to say that "the" top is in.
fair enough "the" top could be defined as this was the highest it will EVER go, even if we're using $10,000 bills as pennys in gumball machines I'll define "the" top as the top of this run - meaning I predict it will close below the spx 200 month moving avg before it *closes* above this months high (i didnt use 20 month moving avg because it should drop by about 2-0 points tomorrow)
If the 20 month MA were that good an indicator, everyone would be rich. It ain't that easy. And at extremes like what we're at now, it's very hard. What I was saying was simple, and is proved by this thread: every blip up is met by crazy amounts of skepticism. Same as what I've been saying for gold: every time it gets near the old highs, you get lots of threads about how it's going to the moon. I just reply that it's sideways until it's not. Been doing that for months. Been right about that for months too. There's actually some very good ways of measuring skepticism, which I use, and no I'm not telling you what they are. I will simply say that this is what they are showing, and this is what they've been showing for months now. In the stock markets, it's up until it's not. When you guys throw in the towel, then we can start working on a top.