did the fed want the market to go down from jan 2008 into early 2009? i'm just curious - the 'omnipotent fed' crowd never seems to address that or do you know personally, when 'they' want it to go up vs when they dont? will you tell us the next time that 'they' dont want the market to go up? becasue clearly by your logic, sometimes ' they' dont want it to
The market is already trading like a bubble. There absolutely zero definable leadership. Its sort of throw money at any pos of shit and call it a day.
Did any insider from the Fed informed me about it? Of course not. It is my judgment from what is available in public. You sure can have yours.
Glad to see someone gets it. Honestly, I just don't understand so many people's obsessions with attempting to call absolute tops and bottoms. That's not where the big money is made on a consistent long term basis. Fool's game.
so why post in such a thread? I really dont get all of the comments form people who really arent saying anything
I would agree with the previous poster in that fundamentals speak clearly against your view. Market reaction after those bad NFP numbers last Friday clearly favored the upside. Then the upgrade of the banking sector by GS...nobody knows what the earnings season will bring, although even there I would rather lean to better than expected numbers. Dont get me wrong I believe this market is flushed with cheap money but hey, there is tons of people who seem to be having huge issues with this, GS, the world...why should I care. I care about market reaction and moves. From a technical standpoint I also dont see much that speaks in your favor. Your call was a good one, but I recommend you dont get married to your view, markets sometimes adjust a lot faster than we think. By the way I did not catch your investment horizon. If you are looking into months/years then my above comments are obviously moot.
good point, I try to always trade in precisely the same way. Being right on one prediction feels great and makes me look great, the other 9 times it makes me look pretty dumb. No point...
you seem to be very green behind your ears otherwise you would realize he/she actually SAID something. ;-)
The real point is, why close yourself off to one side of the market? If you've got this big bet you've made declared to the whole world, obviously it's going to hamper you on taking any long side setups; meanwhile you will have to hold out for your home run short to play out (I dunno, maybe you've taken some temporary or partial profits on the last dip, we've bounced nearly 40 pts since) -- all or nothing, in other words. And like others have mentioned, once that meaningless new high gets triggered again . . . *shrug*. Nobody knows what you're really doing in your account behind the scenes, but the sad thing is that posting a thread like this will only do harm to your account if you're being honest, while you really get nothing out of it if you turn out to be right.
boy, you're jumping to conclusions who said anything about taking no long side bets? In ANY market, up or down, there will be long and short positions during the week here's what I said on page 3 (depending on the size of your ignore list) "as i said in another post, i think the easy guess is a drop to the 200 month moving avg at spx 1019 to test support, from there it';s anyone's guess after that it could ping pong between the 200 and the now lower 20 month (about 1042)" <---typo, the 20 month spx moving average is 1053 (and by the way, that's exactly what's happened, the market closed within a point of that today, at 1053.48) do you interpret that as my saying 'take no more long side bets from now on?' like i said earlier in this thread, it's a parlor game - on why that was or wasnt the top it was an invitation to post technical analysis of people's opinions on this particular point in time some people dont believe in doing that sort of thing and to those people I say YOU DONT HAVE TO COME HERE AND TELL US THAT! WE ALREADY UNDERSTAND THAT MANY PEOPLE FEEL THAT WAY! SIMPLY IGNORING THE THREAD WILL DO! (I feel like a dispatcher in a town with a car accident and 3 cop cars already on the scene explaining to the 90th dumbshit calling in on his cell phone that it's already been reported)