Actually, what's clear is that you need to get your story straight: it is not possible to predict the markets http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1333520&highlight=predict#post1333520 I do not bet nor do I predict. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1861498&highlight=predict#post1861498 Predicting is one of the myths many traders believe in. I do not believe in prediction for one reason: it is not necessary. As it happens, also, it does not work. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2122415&highlight=predicting#post2122415 I do not deal with the future you do deal with the future and you say it with the word "predict". I never got to deal with prediction. It is a favorite of some people and that is for sure. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1289117&highlight=predict#post1289117
I just wonder: Does this not also make you look stupid, digging up all this stuff just to get some shit on this pitiful guy? QUOTE]Quote from Trader666: Actually, what's clear is that you need to get your story straight: it is not possible to predict the markets http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1333520&highlight=predict#post1333520 I do not bet nor do I predict. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1861498&highlight=predict#post1861498 Predicting is one of the myths many traders believe in. I do not believe in prediction for one reason: it is not necessary. As it happens, also, it does not work. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2122415&highlight=predicting#post2122415 I do not deal with the future you do deal with the future and you say it with the word "predict". I never got to deal with prediction. It is a favorite of some people and that is for sure. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1289117&highlight=predict#post1289117 [/QUOTE]
P.S. You've amply demonstrated -- in this example and on numerous other occasions --that you can't predict even a few days in advance, let alone a year: Remember how you bragged about your NTES trade just before it went south? http://www.mediafire.com/?0ielxnmeiro <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2592993>
[/B][/QUOTE] Here is the entire quote you referred to: "The first price low (an FTT) of the day's range expansion will be a cycle ending for channels, traverses of channels, tapes of traverses and BBT's of tapes. This short channel ending milestone marks the beginning of the LAST long channel before the END of the Bull retrace in this long lasting Bear economic market. It began in late JUNE 2006. While I did not post, publically, an annual set of legs for 2009 in December 2008 as I usually would, THIS comment is the equivalent of a year's forecast. As a trader for 53 years, this turning point tomorrow is the most significant I have seen in my life. Clean Page 4's horizontal line that is in effect (gap adjusted) is what has caused a few minor fractal pertibations to move this sub retrace bottom forward somewhat in the pre Labor Day confluence." I itemized the steps from the above quote onward step by step. I also repeated the TA vocabulary I use. As you may have seen, the LAST long channel happened and it failed. What failed means is that it DIED even before it could complete and then the next (short channel) commence. We are in a Depression. I was born in 1933 and had the experience of growing up at that time when the public mentality left something to be desired. It is very logical that the market has its up's and down's. Doing the channels provides a context in this depression. Below you see what I refer to as "immunity" to being a victim of the general malaise we are in. Traders do trades as the day goes by and the trades are in a context. The day starts at a given point where the context of the channel, its current traverse, the traverse's tape context and the current BBT of the tape. Here you see the first two trades that occurred within the KNOWN context of the occurring BTT three movements. At 10:00 o'clock news disturbed the market. You may not know or understand what is going on; I do on the other hand. Check out the trades below and see for yourself. I do not usually post my trading but these are exceptional times and I empathize with those who are young and are going to be facing many years of difficulty. So I am posting the above to neutralize you and your comments. Someone noted that I may know something they do not know. As you or anyone can see I trade just like an ordinary person drives a car. I do not wish to attract the attention of anyone who 's purpose is making money. I am only interested in those who want to learn to be expert traders by working. I wish to remain "unbelievable" to people like you. I have amply succeeded in your case. In Vegas at the Expo, I will get to meet many people who are the opposite of you. See if you can figure out the money velocity of the trading above. If you can, then go quietly away.
most technical people familiarize themselves with other methods. Then they see how the peel off in the infinite scheme of things. Some methods lead others lag. Talking heads are not too astute and have a dependnecy on advisors in their realms. when a talking head, before market open and after news mentions a method in passing, it is an interesting footnote. You may remember a recent attempt at putting a program on the air where "experts" answered Q's from amateurs. The program was pulled fairly quickly. At the Expo there will be panels and people will ask Q's. Usually the experts wind up talking to each other after the moderator poops out. You are one of the people who can't ask good questions. The antidote is listening. The usual confused salad was presented to neutralize T666. I usually let him do his thing. But this is an important contemporary thread. The market is simple as you declare. There is only one market pattern and it precisely connects the two variables, P and V. The elegant aspect of this singular pattern is that as it alternates long and short (as a completed pattern) and the adjacent patterns overlap. They are also nested in a 3 to 1 ratio on adjacent fractals. Luckily, when a pattern fails to complete, the trader is given advance warning of WMCN. Similarly, the companion of WMCN, WWT, also gives an advanced warning. It is a lot of fun to cruise along, as the xls spread sheet I gave to you suggests. Obviously at some point partial fills are required and seconds of time are involved. Your commentary is humorous and we all enjoy that from our different vantage points. Calling market top or bottom is fun just as driving golf balls is. Drilling down and continually taking the market's offer takes more; it takes accepting the market's "tells" and executing in a timely manner minute after minute as the day goes forward. For me, filling in my daily log ahead of time is a consequence of WMCN. Noting the bars it is going to happen on can be done a couple of bars ahead, usually. It is a calm and relaxing way to operate. I probably should post my logs ahead of time for a few days.
Nice 30 minute drive (on a 10 lane highway) ... Nailed the open, Reversed into the lower peak and down to the trough for exit (5M analysis).
"Calling market top or bottom is fun just as driving golf balls is. Drilling down and continually taking the market's offer takes more; it takes accepting the market's "tells" and executing in a timely manner minute after minute as the day goes forward." well, how bout starting your own thread to pursue that, instead of hijacking other's to promote yourself with your verbose BS?
Here is an annotated chart. We trade on 30 minute stock type charts during real time. The person whose chart this is, is a VERY successful trader. On Sunday I will post the current hot list for next week. I will also post the results of this week when we have our usual Sunday am meeting to set up for next week. These times are difficult. Stock trading is necessary because a trader needs to sweep his commodities surplus profits weekly or more often. Therefore, it is incumbant on traders to have the contemporary context for each market they have accounts in. The stuff T666 is posting has been addressed many times in the past. I, therefore, get another opportunity to remind traders how trading works on various levels as he goes about his business of frontending the methods we use. For you guys who are swift, what kind of bar did T666 highlite in yellow? does anyone know what this portended? Cool. Question why didn't T666 and why did he edit the way he did?
I feel it is a pleasant experience trading the open based on the context. your 5 minute analysis is super and the upcoming three moves on the 10 am news could have almost been intrabar as happens a lot. There is no predicting but just the P, V pattern you posted recently. By knowing the answers to three Q's at all times; trading becomes like driving a car. 1. At what place are we in the cycle? 2. WMCN? 3. How fast are the changes occuring in the pattern? Our minds can do this as time passes. Obviously, we have tooling to support our sensing. The tooling comes from the dreaded deductive paradigm, however. If a person wants to double his sensory input, he simply does that. I have five plus's regarding these things. In the trading group, I do not ask questions (this is a distraction). I am informative on a dual sensory level (two plus's). I am calling on ONLY the observable level. I only state what is coming up on two bases: WMCN and WWT. (two pluses). We use 7 leading indicators oif ES price. To use a dual sensory approach is synergistic as far as the operating efficiency of the mind is concerned. Minds "know that they know". That is what driving a car is all about. In gliding or sailing you get to feel the sport too. gliding is 3D and sailing is 3D too. My screens show me annotating; it is a visual to others. It keeps the focus on what we do most: HOLDING. Hearing is also going on for all of us. I hear myself in THE context of WMCN and WWT. My mind is listening and seeing inferencially (90%). Literally, my attention to have "perception" is 90% inference from my mind. The french chateaux evenings are what it is like all the time in our group: riveting attention. The pinwheel of green on the trading platform is just background. Your charts show the same routine. My daily print is like an ignore list on ET that has not had deletions for a couple of years, only additions. As asiaprop so elegantly and briefly stated, it is so easy and the offer is always there. With screens rotated 90% so they are tall and narrow, the market and the tooled up indicators just flow from the present into the past. They are like geese in formation. They are flying in formation and always going somewhere. The lead goose changes direction and all the others follow. ES price is one of the trailing geese. The Depression is important. For geese it would be like the sounds they hear of storms in mountains or coastal heavy weather (they hear on many octaves lower than we do and use this for orienteering). The failure of the long was just stormy weather. Adjusting the nonstationary window was just contextual to trading. It is all binary. Binary vectors. Geese get it; its duck soup for them. What is it like to not know what is going on in the markets? I just do not know. I do know at 76, firing up new equipment and having to change brokers is a pain. I do make the call for someone to replace my pages on each screen if I mess them up by my mousemanship failures. Starting a day with all the day's entries on four log pages is a nice am opening treat. So I go in when the market opens on the right side and stay there until later in the day when margin changes (bar 77 or 76). I may be out for a few here and there. I usually, nowadays, do not trade news. I did scoop a little today as it came across the market. Feed the geese; they are nice guys. In gliding eagles will bash the canopy without a moments notice. they are great too and as they climb up and out ahead of you, you know who knows how to fly best. They do have dusty wings though. Zipping by a mountain goat is very funny. They are spooked by the whir of the ship. Anyway it is good to see the T666 humor creeping in just like fog when sailing. Same old fog too.