Im counting on exactly this to make some good bucks in real estate over the next few months. One more heart-rending drop in the Dow should shock a couple of potential sellers into the realization that my offer on their property is the best theyre likely to see for the next 2 years or so
Although "calling" any high or low is reasonably impressive, without any idea of the trades duration the same old questions arise... How do you know when to take a profit? How do you know what percentage to leave in the trade? How do you know whether or not adding to the trade is the best idea? How do you form a structured money management framework? Lacking an answer to these questions is equal to being a losing trader over the long-term. Since the March low which I called within 4 days of the actual event, there have been no less than 11 opportunities for taking a 40 + point haul AGAINST the trend from the ES. (Depending upon the current degree of the "present wave" and whether the 666 low is considered as the "all time final low", which some traders consider to be doubtful in the long run.) 10 of the previous "Tops" have been proven to be nothing other than just another peak in the overall trend. 19/3 40 pts 26/3 45 pts 6/4 45 pts 17/4 45 pts 7/5 50 pts 20/5 45 pts 5/6 70 pts 1/7 60 pts 13/8 40 pts 28/8 45 pts 23/9 50 pts The latest peak could be the most significant correction within the current trend as of yet, or alternatively it could be the commencement of a downward continuation. (Hey some genuis eh) A correction implies that there will be more upside and the peak that determines the corrective action is not "The Top", so therefore terminology is very important when we are talking about a multi trillion dollar industry. Some people are calling for the market to crash again around about now, others are calling for more upside... This is why I asked for clarity with regards to what the original posters feelings were. I enjoy seeing predictions made as I have made them myself in the past and this is why I decided to join the thread.
On a related note, I'd like to emphasize yet again what a wonderful contrary indicator ET is. Does everyone remember all the top calling threads all the way up to 1060? Then, literally the DAY BEFORE the peak, the silly shorts on this forum threw in the towel... threads started like "just buy!", "Is shorting dead?", and so on. Comical. I said at the time that there was too much bullish sentiment, but I am amazed at just what an incredible contrary indicator this board actually is. Looks like ET does have a use after all. (Note that I am not including this thread in that discussing... there weren't a lot of others calling for a drop a few days ago. You have to wait until there are literally 3 or 4 threads about the same thing all started within a day or two of one another, after an extended move in one direction. ) Similarly, I remember someone posting here about a month ago how they finally puked out of natural gas trade after holding for a long decline. I don't trade NG, but I remember thinking: "that's got to be a great contrary indicator if I ever saw one". Sure enough, the bottom was in shortly thereafter. Gotta love it.
that's an interesting point - all the critics of this thread were saing little more than (breathlessly) "it can keep going up, you know!!!" acusing me of saying nothing more than the exact opposite, and I wasn't. In the first post, I referenced a post I made 2 weeks before, and the day the market reached the 20 month moving average, I called the thread 'technical case for the top?', with a question mark. the end of the month was the confirmation, as a monthly MA doesnt count until the bar was closed. I made the call within 2 minutes of the close It was a solid TA call period, and some just cant deal with it. Many critica are basicly saying TA means nothing, and if they believe that fine, but the post should be just that one line. Someone asked me how to play it. Specific trading calls were not my goal, but I answered an 'easy segment' would be to the 200 month moving average which was 1019 at the time. (and I wrote that answer on Wednesday) It reached it's first milestone of the 200 month moving average within less than 7 open trading hours of that call. this is the line the fed has to defend, not an endless pointless rally. some here are just too dumb to get that (but my call was based on pure TA, not a guess about the fed's goals or challanges) no, it wasn't 'too early' it was exactly right, adn that's why i made it when i did, becasue i thought once it was confirmed it might happen fast
For the record, I happened to agree with your call for some near term downside, and in fact said similar things myself in recent days... so it was a good call. I was warning people as early as the day before the Fed announcement, and also on the day of the announcement when we had that big reversal. But at the point you called it, it was somewhat early to say definitely that "the top" from March was in, which is how I interpreted it. Having said that, it is definitely possible that this is "the" top, but it's still too early to call even now... the price action over the next couple of weeks is going to tell us a lot. I'll be looking to see if we start getting some more bearish threads on ET.
i'll let the call stand, that it was the top of *that* rally. tha's still signifigant, as it was one of the largest rally's if not 'the' of the last several decades. and while it was not a formal indicator to me, the fed day reaction close had been somewhat of a trend indicator "Old Turkey would cock his head to one side, contemplate his fellow customer with a fatherly smile, and finally he would say very impressively, âYou know, itâs a bull market!â Time and again I heard him say, âWell, this is a bull market, you know!â as though he were giving to you a priceless talisman wrapped up in a million-dollar accident insurance policy. And of course I did not get his meaning. " I'll spell it out - it's still a bear market, people <img src = "http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2592481">
Finally we have an answer in terms of trade duration! "The Top" since the March low.... very bold indeed... This statement implies that the 666 low will be breached before the September high in order for it to fulfill the criteria of being "The Top". I do like it when somebody lays their neck on the chopping block! I for the record will take the contrary position and say that this ISN'T "The Top" and that price will trade higher than the September high before trading under the 666 low, thereby proving that the September high is just another peak in the prevailing trend that is apparent since March, assuming I'm correct ofcourse. Ooooo isn't this good fun!
look at the nasdaq 100 <img src = "http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2592509"> that day was a spectacular technical moment all across the board, the kind of thing a technition only sees once every couple of years or so but many posters here are just too stupid to close their egos and open their eyes