Haha. Dont laugh. Hear me out stonedinvestor. First, the one stock that did exceedingly well during the 2001 recession was Kraft foods. When the recession was over and the market bottom, then Kraft fell off a cliff and has been trading in a range ever since. It now resembles a reverse head and shoulders on the chart. Second, during a recession people do not go out but they eat in. They go to the store and buy food. Third, Buffet bought a large stake in Kraft foods and has openly admitted that he believes there will be a long protracted recession much different then previous ones. Conclusion, buy and hold Kraft foods.
I pulled up a weekly on KFT after reading your post, out of curiousity. I was surprised to see such an ugly chart. Fundamentally, I agree with you, and would add that, emerging economies tend to start eating more processed foods, as their lives become more hectic (like americans et al) So, I figured I would see a strong chart, not that piece. They do face challenging competitive conditions in some product categories, plus rising commodity costs if they cannot pass those on Overall, I would have to say that you are correct, and this will payoff in the long run (just a guess). However, given CAG earnings were well below expectations, I would tread lightly on a bet before earnings.
This will be a long term hold. Initial position will be a market order tommorrow 30 minutes after the open. If after the call, it goes down then I'll average down. Im confident this will be a great long term holder. Think about it. Buffet knows there will be a recession and then buys 3.9 billion dollars in stock. The stock has gone nowhere during the bull market but shot up during the short beark market from 2001-2002.