Imo C is a good buy for the _long_ term investor. However, imo this stock trades down to $25 ish. nitro
You're smart to watch the volume. If and when selling pressure dries up, the stage will begin to be set for a recovery. In the meantime, keep an eye on XLF as well as the higher-cap "indicator" stocks, such as JPM and HBC. That will give you a better idea of when to act. LC
"Now, that's funny to hear all the technical talk -- don't forget that fundamentals come into play sometimes... have you done a valuation for this stock? $5 bucks? really? " No,it will come down 5$ to around 25$...thats what it looks like it wants to do technically.
The above chart does appear to be technically correct, however, you dont want to enter this trade until the pattern completes. I've been short subprime, the financials, and everything else even remotely related to mortgages all year long. Look at the big picture of Citigroup. It broke through a major trend line that its been climbing since 1982. I am in a position to know that Citigroup and all these other financial companies are in big trouble. I would even say that Citigroup is a still a good short. I think this one will get cut in half and the next level of support is 15 bucks.
Jackerman, don't disagree with your assessment... I'm not looking at C for a long term investment, just a quick $5-10 bucks bounce... following your lead, I've pulled the long term chart for it and if you note the 27-30 area has a previous congestions which "could" be a "short" term support -- not sure it will slide right through this support and go to $15.... the stock is so depressed right now that just about any piece of good news would drive a quick bounce... my theory is also that they will attract more chinaREIGN investors trying to capitalize on a quick move as well... just like the GM fiasco... maybe you could provide some of your thoughts on it... <img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1724096"></img>
The stock looks like a good trade for the purposes that you've mentioned here. Don't let anyone talk you out of your trade, just set your trade parameters, follow your discipline, and take it (C is currently at 30.29). I
4XIS4U, the chart that I pulled up shows 3 lower lows Nov 8 31.05 Nov 27 29.60 Dec 20 29.34 I think that if you are going to apply technical terms then you need to be far more rigorous in your approach. There isn't anything like the symmetry required to call this a treble bottom. Even if it was such a pattern, then you would not buy it here but say $5 higher when the pattern becomes active. Look at the volume -it increases dramatically on the down swings, the exception being Friday's trade, (but what do you expect at this time of year.) Volume tells us to be bearish. I'm not saying that you cannot make money with short term longs on this stock, but if you are talking bar charts -then the only thing they are telling you is to go short.
My thoughts are that you are bottom-picking and looking for a quick bounce trade. For myself, I like to pick tops versus picking bottoms. Your trade is very risky as it could turn either way at this point. To be candid, this might be a very good point to get in, but it could also fall just as hard. I would set a tight stop at 29.25 and if it made it that low then I would exit quick. I believe there is a chance that it might get to 33 and that would make you a nice 10%, but I would exit at 33 and watch to see if the pattern completes. Buy now, exit either at 29.25 or 33, whichever comes first. Thats just my opinion and I believe thats a fairly safe thesis.