thanks. I understand the risks, but it's one I'm willing to take becomse I'm so confident the spooz will retest 900 soon.
so why do you think this rally has any staying power? i'm not saying that it doesn't, but you seem completely convinced that you're right. the best mind in the world wouldn't write with your conviction, but here you are. trading is about probabilities in the end, and, if there's one thing you should have learned by now, it's that nothing is guaranteed.
Since October 10th the sp00z has been trading like a wave with a bottom at 800 and a top at 930 or so. We've bounced off the lows of 800, so the next target is 900.
Perhaps this is more for other new traders as I have doubts that this concept will matter to you at this point. Sometimes when you win you still lose. This over simplifies it but I think helps get the point across. If you took all your money and bet it on a bet with a 90% chance of winning but you bet all you have every time you will end up losing all your money even if the payoff is 5x your original outlay. Regardless of your odds you should never be 'all in' in the market and especially so in a concentrated manner. Again, I hope your trade works out well but I fear that in the end it will not matter.
Nassim Taleb had a good illustration of this. He said he was having dinner with his friend one night, and they flipped a coin to determine who would pay for the meal. Taleb's friend won the coin toss and got a "free" meal. Sort of. This is because the friend still paid for half of the meal probabilistically.
No, he said he sold everything (near the bottom, big shock) and now to make it up fast he's all in in options. Can't lose!