Im bored so let's talk Stock Picks

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by Hydroblunt, May 8, 2006.

  1. Ok,

    I decided to put a proper effort in swing trading/swing investing early this year. I had to make a proper adjustment of getting rid of the daytrader mentality and making a promise to play small for a year to establish a proper system & record that could be analyzed and evaluated. I've had an OptionsXpress account for 3 years which was active at some times, inactive in others, with random trades from speculative OTM option picks to long term "investments" aka dead positions that went nowhere.

    It's a small account, on purpose. Only 2:1 leverage for stocks above $5. No leverage on options. Up close to 50% YTD but I have no illussions, it's much easier with less capital.

    Some of my basic rules & criteria, still under improvisation

    1) no capital infusions or withdrawals, until Feb 1 2007
    2) no more than 10% loss
    3) aim for at least 15% net profit, really for 20-50%
    4) look for stocks cheap in valuation
    5) stock in hot sectors that may be overlooked
    6) some technical support like consolidation in an uptrend, strong support level or reversal signal
    7) fundamentals, I look for real fundamentals since I noticed that fundamentals always move the stock better than any technicals. I try to exit based on fundamentals unless the stock goes overbought/oversold. This may have caused me to get out of RMKR way too soon but I just feel better if I see smth REAL in the stock. I love dividends also.

    So I sold SGG today at $8.80 from $6.00 for a very nice gain. I was fully loaded before this so I now am considering one or a combiation of the following:

    1. DRL long, courtesy of Option Trader
    2. Buying more TGB which I bought into at 3.25, wait for a minor pullback
    3. Waiting for NXG pullback after that slight Cramer pump. This would require longer as I would expect for it to retrace to $4, so I would need to sit on the cash. Was long this from $2.18, half position sold at $3.88. Their latest earnings makes me think this company is going double digits.
    4. Buy more PWI, courtesy of $CostAverageMan$. Have a little bit from $29.90. Love that dividend.
    5. Buy some API. Not too interested in the semis but looks cheap and has aerospace/defense exposure

    Besides these, Im watching HRB and TBSI. Also maybe GOOG leap puts if it comes close to 450 area.

    My other positions are AIRT, JVA, PCC. Neither is moving too much in my favor or against but I think AIRT is finally gonna do smth. If not, Im still deciding how to deal with positions that wont move.

    Let's hear some ideas.
  2. I've been doing well by sifting through the IBD top 100 list that comes out in the Monday (delivered Sat.) edition. Last one was a three week hold of ERS, listed #1 at the time. I'm currently looking at #7, RES.
  3. I like BAS. This company recently went public and is in the same industry as HAL (Oil & Gas Equipment & Services). Fundamentals look cheap and technicals look strong. Wait for the conference call on Weds.

    I'd worry about AIRT due to rising fuel costs.
    I'd worry about HRB due to Spitzer.
  4. Got stopped out of PCC today, in from $13.23, stop at $12.77, out at $12.67.

    Got hit on DRL at 7.53, I think this might retest the recent $7.25 low and I think they will try to run stops so I put my stop closer to $7. I think this is a good risk/reward being that I believe DRL has hit rock bottom on those news. Even if fundamentally Doral does not have much going in the future, the stock seems way oversold and quite cheap on valuation. I'm looking for it to hit $10-12 within 3 months on a bounce alone. A turnaround would be even better, could turn into a year hold.

    Also picked up more PWI, now cost averaging $29.67. I will look to add more as long as this stock stays above 27.50.

    I checked out ERS, which looked interesting. But their cash flow is horrific. Althought I do see a bounce possibility and the sector is hot. Stock is crazy volatile, think I've daytraded it before.
    I decided to go with RYI after some late night research. I like the numbers, great cash flow, imroving balance sheet, nice growth. Nice short interest too, great for a squeeze and this stock can just run from what I remember. Put in a limit at 30.55, see what happens.

    HRB is something I am watching. The Spitzer news is BS to shake out the dumb money. That lawsuit is absurd and the maximum liability amount is insignificant to HRB's balance sheet. I look to MRK & PFE for my examples of what happens, as well as MO. I want to see HRB by the $20s, hopefully even $15 for a great entry.

    TGB and NXG just keep on rocking. Looking at FNX also, need to check their financial report again since Yahoo & Reuters dont have updated data on this one.
  5. In BAS @ 37.40, should have jumped on it earlier. IBD is all over it like a cheap suit. 27 PE? Shouldn't have procrastinated.
  6. Hydro,

    I hope this turns out to be an interesting thread.

    Your selection criteria (4 through 7) is different than mine so we do not overlap in what we look at.

    Good luck in a having a great thread and position trading experience.
  7. I've been out of ERS and its still got some mojo, but I would daytrade it only. It fell off the IBD 100 list, all the way off.
  8. I was waiting for more of a pullback on that NXG also. I'm looking at IMCO and some other stuff- none of which looks too fantastic. GLD and SLV also.
  9. Watch TGB guys, earnings tomorrow. Since Im not daytrading, I did not get a chance to buy more TGB on that run of the stops.
  10. birdman


    #10     May 11, 2006