Here's an idea to look at for trading right along with the trades you do already. You have your current method. You are going to keep right on doing that as you please. This idea is to give yourself a mechanical benchmark. This is a straight up mechanical system. No touchy no feely. You pays your money and you takes your ride. Wanna hear it? Here it goes. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ OPENING RANGE BREAKOUT (ORB - Basic) The Opening Range Breakout (ORB) is one of the most important indicators of market direction that a trader can utilize. An opening range breakout (ORB) is a trade taken at a predetermined amount above or below the opening range. When the predetermined amount (the "stretch") is computed, a buy stop is placed that amount above the high of the opening range and a sell stop is placed the same amount below the low of the opening range. $ A simple weekly strategy. On Monday morning check the London opening price, 08.00 GMT. Rule 1. Simultaneously place a buy stop 50 points (pips) above Monday's European opening and a sell stop 50 points (pips) below the European opening price. OCO. (One-Cancels-the Other) When one order is filled, place a 60 point (pips) stop loss on the trade. Make sure you cancel the opposite entry order. You are now done for the week until Friday. If you get stopped out, you will be flat the market for the rest of the week. Rule 2. If you do not get stopped out of the trade you get entered into, exit 5 days later at the market on Friday at 21.00 GMT or New York close. Rule 3. After the weekend, get ready to repeat it all over again on Monday morning. $$ Opening Range Breakout (Basic) has an average trade value of approximately 25-30 pips. This method proves that it is better to trade in the direction of the weekly trend than against it. ~~~~~~~~` So there you have it. Sim trade it if you HAVE to, but even a token amount of cash on the line makes things more meaningful. That'll make you think about "just how much is a token amount of cash? How do I go about putting this in motion? How can I do this easily? What will I trade? You got the Weekend till Monday to grease the skids. Pick a product, Find out how much a 60 point (pips) stop loss at what size on the trade will cost, and generally get the Details ironed out a little bit. After a couple of weeks, you'll be a disciplined old pro. Break a Leg Your Winnings Await. You Can't Lose 'em All. ~~~~~~~~~~ . . . This method is definitely not curve-fitted. The entry/exit values stated are not optimized. It works with much higher or lower exit stops, and/or breakout entry points. Use average of major 4 different pairs to trade. Because this strategy is primarily used by professional traders who have no interest in creating competition, and are willing to put up with trading profile of the system. Therefore you may have not heard about this system before. The Opening Range Breakout (Basic) was in Toby Crabel's book “Day Trading With Short Term Price Patterns”. Tony Crabel understood that from the beginnings of movement in a time period, whether it be a day or a week, the expanding of a price range followed a predictable and exploitable path. His approach to define a "Principle of Contraction/Expansion" enabled him to widen his investigations to a variety of narrow and wide range price formations. He investigated patterns of 2 bars, 3 bars, etc., using charts to help one understand the market concepts. Crabel's book is best known for its treatment of ORB and narrow range (NR4, NR7) patterns. Good traders may trade patterns that appear to be simple. The Opening Range Breakout concept that has been around much longer than Crabel, but Toby Crabel made it famous, at least to those who had no reason to know that the advantage existed. Use of it will not mean that you have found the “Holy Grail”. There will be many losses to experience and the occasional large profit which makes this method so valuable. That is another reason why usually only true professionals are willing to trade this system, or others with a similar profile. You need to prove the concept to yourself before going into actual trading. Daily discipline is a key issue here. The problem is, after trading any reasonable period of time; most people might have difficulty believing the next trade will be a winner after 5 or 6 winning trades, which would be a month and a half. Might you skip any of the next seven trades, or reduce your size – thinking, “can this keep on winning after months of winning trades? If you would deviate at all, your total profits on your winners might not be sufficient to exceed the inevitable losses that occur in matter of course. Then, there was a period where there were several consecutive losses. Could you take loss after loss and still keep believing that the system has an edge? I doubt it. I know just a handful of traders who have taken loss after loss and still keep putting in the trades. Risk Disclaimer: All trading involves risk. Leveraged trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. Be aware and accept this risk before trading. Never trade with money you cannot afford to lose. All information is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advice. Your actual trading may result in losses as no trading system is guaranteed. You accept full responsibilities for your actions, trades, profit or loss. ~~~~~~~~~~~~``````
Sounds like a good plan. I have a question about your definition of points and pips. You use the terms interchangeably. To me, a point is 5th decimal (0.00001) and a pip is 4th (0.00010). So are you saying that the initial buy and sell stops should be 0.00500 or 0.00050 above/below Monday opening?
The "Opening Range Breakout" process above is Straight Out Of Toby Crabel's book, terminology and all. Pips and Points are gone into here... https://www.invest-az.com/what-is-pip-point https://get.exness.help/hc/en-us/articles/360015522299-What-is-the-difference-between-Pip-and-Point-
Ok, so this week on EUR/USD, it would have opened at 1.18862. Entered the trade 1.18362 after 16.5 hours. Then closed for a loss 9hrs15min later. I think this would be easy to backtest because it doesn't require lots of tick data.
The "Stretch" and how it is computed is a key concept in this process. The text seems to mention both a daily and a weekly execution of the process. The Stretch might be computed differently for one or the other of those applications. The original doc above is at: http://www.2hedge.com/pdf/ORBbasic.pdf Search: https://yippy.com/search?query=The+Opening+Range+Breakout+(Basic)+was+in+Toby+Crabel's+book+"Day+Trading+With+Short+Term+Price+Patterns"
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