Overnight Liquidity Update â January 29th, 2004 It does not appear that the current sell-off can last very long--at least over the very short term. So much new cash is pouring into the market that those who sold during the last few days will not want to sit on their cash for long. Ten new offerings--nine of them secondaries--totaling $1.4 billion were announced today. As recently as last night, only seven new offerings were scheduled. The bubble will eventually burst when new offerings average $2 billion daily. The new offering calendar could surge to this level as soon as next week, but it could take a few more weeks. We have no way of knowing right now. Yesterday Bank of America announced a more than $7 billion new stock buyback. Apart from this huge replenishment and a couple of other large ones, stock buybacks have remained scarce. All equity mutual funds and equity exchange traded funds (ETFs) had a combined December inflow of $27.5 billion, a dramatic increase from the combined November inflow of $17.1 billion. Moreover, the January inflow into equity funds--at least into the 15 percent of all U.S. equity funds that we track daily--is far exceeding December¹s pace. Today the Investment Company Institute (ICI) reported that all equity funds had a December inflow of $14.7 billion, $9.8 billion into U.S. equity funds and $5.0 billion into global funds. We had estimated a U.S. equity fund inflow of $13.9 billion and a global fund inflow of $10.7 billion. In addition to the $14.7 billion inflow into all equity funds, all ETFs had a $12.7 billion inflow in December 2003, a record for new money flowing into all ETFs. Of this $12.7 billion inflow, about $11 billion flowed into U.S. ETFs and $1.7 billion into global ETFs. For comparison, all ETFs had a $2.1 billion inflow in November 2003 and about a $1 billion inflow from January 2003 through October 2003. In December, U.S. equity funds and mostly S&P 500 index ETFs had a combined inflow of $20.8 billion. Global mutual funds and global ETFs had a combined $6.7 billion inflow. We suspect that the massive inflow into ETFs during December was mostly from pension funds. In prior years, this money would have flowed into mutual funds. Since at least a dozen fund families have been investigated recently, perhaps pension funds are directing cash into ETFs to disassociate themselves from potential malefactors. The ICI reported that bond funds had a December outflow of $2.9 billion. We had estimated a $6.4 billion inflow. We guess that this discrepancy was due to the recent fund scandal. Most of the bond families that we track daily and monthly have survived the scandal with their reputations intact and have probably received inflows from the bond families with outflows. MUTUAL FUND FLOWS FOR January 28, 2004 ALL EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS: INFLOW $1060.2 MILLION; NAV DOWN 1.5% US EQUITY FUNDS FLOW: INFLOW $1167.8 MILLION BREADTH: POSITIVE 36 IN VERSUS 24 OUT NAV: DOWN 1.5% INTERNATIONAL EQUITY FUNDS FLOW: OUTFLOW $107.6 MILLION BREADTH: NEGATIVE 13 OUT VERSUS 12 IN NAV: DOWN 1.3% BONDS & HYBRID: FLOW: INFLOW $341.7 MILLION NAV: DOWN 0.5% L1: NET FLOAT -$5,652 MILLION NEW ANNOUNCED CASH TAKEOVERS: $88 MILLION COMPLETED CASH TAKEOVERS: $166 MILLION NEW STOCK BUYBACKS $7,730 MILLION NEW OFFERINGS: $1,392 MILLION INSIDER SELLING $800 MILLION L2: US EQUITY FUND FLOW $1,168 MILLION Regards, Charles Biderman, President TrimTabs.com Investment Research http://www.TrimTabs.com +1 (707) 525 1001
we have responsibility to buy stocks. we must buy stocks and send this message to terrorists that we don't agree with them. no event, market should rise on the horizon.
but very overextened. I don't feel certain either way, but I'd guess we will see a bearish week than a bull. I think dow 10,250 would make a good bottom line. I'd feel very comfortable buying into long positions at 10,250. Now I've got to go cancel my buy long orders.
I just received my weekend report which bode unwell for bulls. I've placed a sell order and will be satisfied if it goes through tomorrow at a 2% loss. Oh well, fortunately I made 5% on friday. TrimTabs Weekly Liquidity Summary - February 2, 2004 Bottom Line: We Turn Neutral from Fully Bullish. New Offering Calendar Could Easily Reach $10 Billion during Upcoming Week. Those more aggressive can short the Russell 20000 and going long an equal dollar amount of Dow futures. Small cap funds have stopped having inflows and the new money is mostly headed towards big caps. Headline:. We Turn Neutral as New Offering Calendar Could Reach $10 Billion This Week. Investors Pour Roughly $20 Billion into U.S. Equity Funds in January. Dollar Amounts of Corporate Buying Still More Impressive than Numbers of Transactions. At $3.9 Billion, New Offering Calendar No Match for Fund Inflows. New Offerings during Upcoming Week Could Balloon to $10 Billion. Insider Selling Registers $2.0 Billion Weekly during First Two Weeks of January. Bubble Is Now Increasingly Vulnerable on Several Fronts. Roughly $20 Billion Flows into U.S. Equity Funds in January. Inflows into U.S. Equity Funds Slowed Slightly but Remain Heavy. Flow Data Shows Change in Investor Attitudes toward Risk over Past Two Years. Investor Interest Shifts from Small-Capitalization to Large-Capitalization Stocks.