When operating in an environment of uncertainty (trading), smart and clever are more frequently negative attributes than positive ones. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enron:_The_Smartest_Guys_in_the_Room https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/When_Genius_Failed http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/02/17/forecasting-is-for-the-birds-and-rats/?_r=0
Yeah. I remember that surprise rate cut during Greenspan's time as fed chairman. It was 11:30 a.m. edt, I believe on a Friday. Out of nowhere. Nobody saw it coming. The Sp's were down like 10 points or so. I saw the headline on Reuters. The next quote on my screen was SP +10.00.....+30.00..........+60.00....... It all happened in seconds. A few guys on my desk were short. The losses were staggering.....unheard of. The prices you saw on your screen weren't even close to accurate. I only had on like 2 positions at that time of day. Luckily long. One was SUNW which at the time was a slower moving tech stock. I saw it was trading 82, up like 3 bucks from where I bought it. I just sold it at the market, got 87. That was a huge move for SUNW back then. Crazy stuff. Yes...also the last hour of trading was the wild west. These days a majority of the volume is done the first 2-3 hours or so, then very little throughout the day. Back then you had a ton of volume in the last hour, probably more than the first hour. Much different now. Your last points are all on target. Back in those days guys could have brutally bad mornings trading, but make it all back and then some by the close. Now a days if you get obliterated in the morning it's not nearly as easy to get it all back. Trading back then was like some kind of Woodstock for traders. I think a lot of problems for guys who started during those times was they never experienced a market really going down. During the bubble you could just keep buying with reckless abandon, and you always got bailed out. But when the bubble burst a lot of guys at my old firm got clobbered and never recovered. All of a sudden they would dig holes, but couldn't get out, and made it worse. Our firm saw huge turnover when the bubble bursting began.
You are welcome man. That was exactly my point. The volatility was insane. Also it was basically all day long from bell to bell, everyday. So there were tons of opportunities. These days it seems once you hit noon edt, the market volume dries up and the moves are basically done for the day. As far as predictability/the way the markets trade in that sense? I don't think it's much different than the old days. Trading is trading. Markets are going to go where they want to go. Been that way forever.
Only read first page, you say you gave 10k is that USD ? If so i have less than that and make 50% living trading averagely, so better trading than average and you could easily grow that pretty quick to 100k as is. Markets havent changed in 10 years, they are either going somewhere (trend), or trying to decide on direction (chop), then there is the annoying grey area between the 2 you need to learn to cope with. Its really not that hard, we just make it hard iver thinking it, so no science or maths degrees required or english thankly for me
What are their annual average % rates of return ...actually, since this is a Trader forum...i should be asking more of what are their Monthly average % rates of return? do they compound it?
No idea-- LOL! Rearden made multi millions with his prop firm -- you need to ask directly for specifics from prado or rearden.
You know I never talk about how I do....good or bad. Been that way forever. The guys who showed me the ropes when I was new to the game instilled that in me. I can vouch for Rearden. I sat 2 seats down on a trading desk with him. The guy was a top guy in our office. His only drawback was when he got away from trading and made side bets with me. When things got slow guys on our desk would bet on anything. Rearden made the mistake of taking my action on an episode of the dating game. Yes....as I said we bet on anything. I took him for a nice pile of cash that day. We had a blast on that desk. RM is a good guy on my book.