Why does the market so often seem to move illogically? Why does "counterintuitive" (read illogical) trading so often seem to be more successful than reasonable trading? Answer: To trade logically means to trade rationally on the basis of the available information. But the information available to most traders is out of date compared to the information available to the chosen few who have access to critical facts before the general population does. There are those on the inside who have access to critical government data before the rest of us do and thus their trading, which is massive and determines short-term market movements, seems illogical to the rest of us. We've all seen entire sectors move counter to prevailing logic only to find a few days later some crucial piece of information justify that sector movement. The monied insiders were trading against what seemed rational because they knew something the rest of us didn't. This doesn't mean that counter-intuitive trading will guarantee you success; it tends to be so that when critical news that contradicts what is generally understood is imminent that trading against reason works. The effect this insider trading has on the market is to add an element of apparent randomness to market movements, but this randomness is only an illusion created by the influence of an uneven distribution of critical information. We all know Government is rife with crooks. Why would we think government insiders would play it straight when there's so much to be gained by these insiders exploiting their advantage?