ignoring crude action?!

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by adamcholeva, Sep 29, 2005.

  1. The other day I posted commenting on the crude-centric mkt. , and iquiring how you all dealt with it. Allmost everyone responding were claiming they more or less ignored it. Now, with its at times somewhat irrational effect (far from perfect inverse relationship), it still seems to be the trigger for most moves these days - like today, it was very eviden how everyone was trading the 3/5 min. flag from 11.00 - 11.40 on all three index'es (es, nq , ym), and that it's direction was totally determined by the down crude move.

    So again, I'd be grateful for how you all deal with this? Personally I try to only focus on it when we're in a pattern, and waiting for an outcome - there crude action seems to provide a good hint. But I still would look to see an end to this focus on crude, so we can trade the us index'es as the leading ones as we're used to.

    Link to flag on es 5 min, along with the crude move I allude to above here:


  2. why not consider it as a useful indicator ...
    while it still "works"

  3. swcom


    It is working, and will likely continue to for some time, at least during this period of volatile energy.

    I traded ES contracts from 1220 to 1225. Took about two minutes. I was watching oil and NatGas all morning, then when they were tumbling, I watched the market come back up and pounced on the ES, and sold just as it topped.

    Oh yeah, all they have been talking about on CNBC (Love or hate 'em) is this inverse relationship, so why not take advantage of it. CLosest thing to a sure bet. Also, I think that people are really interested in having the market go up, so the buyers come in heavy from any selloff in energy (like me). Lather, rinse, repeat.